In Arizona just before Election Day, one word crept into nearly every conversation: independent. My team and I were in the state working on a piece about the impact women voters might have on the upcoming 2018 midterm races. Through the process of interviewing Republicans and Democrats, we quickly learned of a third, key constituency.
Statue at the Lodge on the Desert Hotel. Photo by Rose Gilbert.
Independents are the second largest voting group in Arizona, making up 34.7 percent of registered voters, barely fewer than the 35 percent registered Republicans and more than the just over 31 percent registered Democrats. Independent voters’ impressive numbers are part of a recent trend: in 1988, independents accounted for only 11.6 percent of Arizona’s electorate. According to the New York Times, it was this increase in independent voters, along with support from women voters, that allowed moderate Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to defeat her Trump-aligned Republican opponent, Rep. Martha McSally, in this year’s senate race.
“Voting a straight D ticket or a straight R ticket isn’t as important to them as making sure that things are taken care of in their community,” said Shelley Kais, an unsuccessful Republican candidate for the Arizona State Senate.
Shelley Kais at the Green Valley Republican Club. Photo by Nate Levit.
“The lesson that I learned is that people in the district, particularly down in Santa Cruz County, are more concerned about what’s best for their community than politics,” she added
Arizona is not the lawless and self-sufficient land of cowboys it once was, but its residents are proud of their reputation for autonomy and independence. Many embrace candidates who refuse to toe either party line. People we interviewed, from journalists to Uber drivers, held up the late Republican Sen. John McCain, famous for his willingness to work across the aisle and to stand up to President Trump, as the paragon of the kind of maverick spirit Arizonans admire.
Arizona may not be the Wild West anymore, but plenty of locals still wear cowboy hats. When we met John Ladd, a conservative rancher who appeared in multiple campaign ads for McSally and other Republicans, he tipped his hat, an old-fashioned chivalrous gesture that fit his persona perfectly.
John Ladd by the border fence. Photo by Lindsey Schmidt.
“When you’re in the ranching community and the general farm communities overall, they’re more conservative,” Ladd explained, adding that nut growers and wine grape growers tend to be more moderate, and that specialty crop growers could even be “a little liberal.”
Although Arizona’s rural and agricultural communities are generally conservative, those who live here value self-sufficiency in a way that seems to preclude putting too much faith in any one party.
“Anybody that is growing something in America is gonna be independent,” said Ladd.
“You depend on Mother Nature. You depend on hard work to get it done. To see your successes so you can’t depend on somebody else. It’s up to you to be a success so that’s the connection with farming and ranching is independent.”
But conservatives weren’t the only ones who predicted that independents would play a big role in the year’s midterm elections in Arizona.
Sinema voter Jason Scott, whom we met at the State Fair in Phoenix about a week before the election, correctly speculated that his candidate would win the women’s vote, but added that the reason wouldn’t be because of party lines or Democratic messaging.
“Women in Arizona are pretty independent-minded. It’s hard to tell them who to vote for and what to vote for,” he said.
The Arizona Senate election was extremely close; it took almost a week to declare Sinema the winner. She certainly has independent-minded Arizona women to thank for her narrow victory: 51% of women voted for Sinema, as compared with 49% of men, and 50% of independent women, as compared with the 47% who voted for McSally.
Me and my teammates interviewing a McSally voter at the Arizona State Fair. Although she had already voted for McSally, she emphasized that she never voted a straight ‘R’ or ‘D’ ticket. Photo by Kathleen McCleery.
