Assignment 3

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I predict that the residents of MD-01 will support more restrictive immigration politics than the residents of Maryland as a whole. To test these predictions, I will measure support for the border wall and DACA in MD and MD-01. I use data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. I predict that residents of MD-01 will be more likely to support the border wall and less likely to support DACA than the residents of MD as a whole. I draw mostly from Wong (2017 and 2014) and Casellas and Leal (2013) in these predictions, as MD-01 is less Latino, less foreign-born, and more Republican than Maryland as a whole.

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Data comes from the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, conducted by YouGov and 50 research universities. 1041 Marylanders and 126 residents of MD-01 responded to the survey. The survey asks hundreds of questions, including on respondents’ support for the border wall and DACA. The question on the wall asks respondents if they support or oppose a government effort to “Increase spending on border security by $25 billion, including building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico.” The question on DACA asks respondents if they would support or oppose a government effort to “Provide legal status to children of immigrants who are already in the United States and were brought to the United States by their parents. Provide these children the option of citizenship in 10 years if they meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes. (DACA).”

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The results indicate that 76% of Marylanders surveyed and 70% of MD-01 residents support DACA. 38% of Marylanders and 48% of MD-01 residents support the border wall. While these results nominally support my hypotheses, the magnitude is small. I will further discuss this in slide 4.

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The difference between MD and MD-01 in support for DACA and the border wall were only 6 pp and 10 pp, respectively. While both support my hypothesis in direction, it is unclear whether they do in magnitude. It is entirely possible that DACA is simply a popular program, and the border wall is unpopular. Significant majorities of both MD and MD-01 support DACA, and majorities of both oppose the border wall. The demographic factors underlying my theory may contribute slightly, but cannot outweigh the respective popularity of each program. Future research should use different sample to conduct similar research and conduct regression analysis to isolate causal mechanisms. This study may also be limited by the fact that only 4% of Maryland survey respondents were Latino, while 9% of Marylanders are Latino. 

Population Makeup of MD-01 (3)

Slide 1

MD-01 is home to very small minority and immigrant populations as well as very small minority and immigrant population growth. The proportion of foreign-born residents of MD-01 grew by only one percentage point between 2007 and 2017. The proportion of foreign-born non-citizens practically did not change. A significant plurality of foreign-born residents were Asian, at 30%, while 27% were non-Hispanic White and 26% were Hispanic. MD-01 underwent redistricting that took effect in 2012, which shifted parts of the district from the Annapolis area to the northern Baltimore suburbs. However, the majority of the land and people of the district remain on Maryland’s rural Eastern Shore.

Slide 2

The body of literature on how population characteristics affect immigrant experiences, media coverage, and public opinion is vast. I zero in on a few important articles. Fernandez-Kelly (2008) writes that larger immigrant populations will be better integrated into society. In general, the media portrays immigrants as negative and Latino. This effect is greater in English-speaking media, in areas with more Latinos, and in areas closer to the border (Abrajano and Singh 2009; Branton and Dunaway 2009). I include the literature on the language of media because areas with more Spanish-speakers are presumably more likely to have access to local Spanish media, and thus Spanish media is, in a sense, a proxy for Latino population. Whites in close proximity to Latino populations are more likely to harbor anti-immigrant attitudes and vote Republican (Abrajano and Hajnal 2015). Though still controversial, more scholars agree that anti-immigrant attitudes are triggered when both a sudden influx of immigrants and salient national rhetoric are present (Hopkins 2010; Newman et. al 2018).

Slide 3

Slide 3 indicates that population characteristics should have little impact on the aforementioned categories. MD-01 is home to small foreign-born and Latino populations and has had little immigrant population growth. It is far from the border and does not have local Spanish media. Though salient national rhetoric exists to spark anti-immigrant attitudes, a sudden influx of immigrants does not. The exception to my hypothesis that population characteristics will have little salience in determining outcomes is the immigrant experience. Because there is a small immigrant population in MD-01, I predict that immigrants will be poorly integrated socially and politically.

Slide 4

I hypothesize that the Asian immigrant population in MD-01 will be poorly integrated socially and politically. I choose to look at Asian immigrants because Asians are the largest foreign-born population in MD-01. I plan to interview immigrant advocates in the district, with a focus on interviewing those who are Asian immigrants themselves. If I am unable to interview Asian immigrant advocates, I will ask if they could connect me with prominent Asian immigrants in the district. I plan to ask whether Asian immigrants feel like they have a voice in MD-01, whether the political parties conduct significant outreach to Asian immigrants, whether educational outcomes are favorable to Asian immigrants, and whether Asian immigrants are well represented in local government.