by Grace, Matthew, Rei
Mission (Grace, Matthew, Rei)
The residents of Tangier Island, VA, have the potential to become some of America’s first climate change refugees. We plan to analyze climate change from their highly localized perspective, studying the social problem of communicating scientific ideas on climate change in a politically polarized environment. Our mission is to humanize and contextualize climate change denial, providing “thicker descriptions” of their reality. The layout of our page is intended to mimic how we initially approached the climate change problem. First we present the problem of climate change as we saw it through the BBC’s interpretation and with our own biases. Gradually, we narrow our scope to “thicker” descriptions of the residents lived experiences through a re-edited video that excludes BBC’s narrative and replaces it with narration from the residents themselves.
Our page will advance our mission by presenting contending viewpoints from the residents behind the potential loss of their island, contrasted with data about the reality of sea-level rise. We will also contextualize the resident’s viewpoints through re-edited interviews and by considering their historical ties to the island.
While we did consider “promoting climate science literacy” as a potential part of our mission, we are unable to directly interface with the residents of Tangier and this goal seems to put the responsibility of climate change on them. However, we actually know that the majority of emissions come from companies and industries rather than individuals, and any action taken by Tangier to mitigate their climate impacts will not save their island. As such, our revised mission is to elevate the voices of the residents of Tangier Island to call attention to the harm being done by not having stricter policies and stronger national commitment to mitigating climate change. This mission is carried out through the combination of additional cultural backgrounding, data remapped for the island, and re-edited video narratives.
Background (Matthew)
Located in the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay is a small island called Tangier. Originally an outpost for Native Americans, the island was first explored by English colonists in the early 1600s and was not fully settled upon until nearly a century later. Hundreds of years later in the present, multiple generations of proud Americans have populated the island. Since the 1800s, Tangier’s economy has relied on the fishing/crabbing industry. The fisherman community prides themselves on their hard working mentality, patriotism, and devout religious faith. The island’s population is less than 450 permanent residents, and this number continues to shrink. Tangier is facing a geographic crisis that may mean the end for the tiny island, thus forcing the Tangier residents into becoming the first American climate refugees. Storm-induced flooding and sea level rise have caused the island’s size to be reduced by two-thirds since 1850. The highest elevation on the island is 6 feet, and the average is 3. Scientists have predicted that within 50 years, or even 20, the island will disappear under the rising waves. As sea level continues to swallow the land and storms erode the town away, members still deny the existence of man-made climate change. Although the environment they live in, a sinking island, would be an indexical landscape for the validity of man-made climate change, the majority of the Tangier community still refuse to accept it as a reality.
According to the island’s 2010 Census, the number of permanent residents was 727. In the year that the video was released, 2017, the population of Tangier was 450 people. This number has reduced to 440 in the current year of 2020. Racial diversity is almost non-existent in Tangier, as over 99% of the population was reported as White/Caucasian. The majority of the residents are members of the Methodist Church, which has a strong influence in the community. The age disparity is overwhelming in the town. 72% of the residents are ages 25 or over, and the median age for the community is 43.
Tangier can be considered a one horse town in many aspects. For instance, the island has only one physician’s assistant, accompanied by a few nurses. Patients in need of urgent care must be flown to mainland hospitals by helicopter. In addition to being minimalist, Tangier is a traditionalist society that puts strong emphasis on moral values. The sale of alcohol is prohibited on the island, and filmmakers have been denied from using their land if the script includes drinking or profanity. Moral and religious values are high amongst the priorities of the community.
Sea-Level Rise (Rei)
Due to increased temperatures worldwide, sea levels are rising at the rate of about 1/8th of an inch per year (3.2mm per year). Using conservative climate models, this would mean at least 12.5 inches of rise by 2100; the most extreme models predict up to 8.2 feet of rise by 2100.
This sea level rise is not as contested by the residents of Tangier; they recognize the problem of rising sea levels and the threat it poses to their island. What are contested, however, are the cause and the solution to the problem. The islanders disagree on man-made climate change – they cite natural wave action, or natural environmental rhythms as the cause of the rise. There is also disagreement about the proposed solution; the government wishes to relocate the citizens, whereas the islanders want funding to build sea walls to protect their island. They believe that they can hold back the seas and prevent the loss of their community. This sea wall has received support from President Trump, which, along with the residents’ denial of climate change has been highlighted in the media portrayals of Tangier.
Initially, we first viewed the problem of climate change through the BBC’s interpretation and with our own biases; we had an instinctive urge to look down upon the resident’s denial of climate change. Our positionality as young educated college students undoubtedly affected our viewpoint, and we belong to kind of audience that the BBC video likely intended to reach – people who are not climate change deniers. However, as we learned more about the island, we gained more of an understanding of the resident’s perspective, which is not solely reducible to their climate change denial and their support for Trump. The loss of Tangier island is also a loss of their unique community.
The BBC video did not provide estimates of sea-level rise, nor did they provide any geographical context or estimates as to the amount of land loss or timelines for such land-loss. Beyond simple statements that sea levels are rising, we wanted to investigate some of the data that upholds this viewpoint, and map it onto the local context of Tangier. Here, we present visualizations of the projected effects of climate change, to understand the potential impact on the islanders.
Tide Gauges
Below is a map to this effect, including not only Tangier Island but the closest tide gauge stations from NOAA. While Tangier itself does not have a station at which to quantify sea-level rise estimates, the nearby stations in the Chesapeake Bay provide very similar estimates of the amount of sea level rise that will be occurring in the next 100 years, all above 1.2 feet.
The NOAA guide station estimates were derived from the linear trends of the monthly tide levels; NOAA uses at least 50 years of tidal data to derive a relative yearly sea level trend (with 95% confidence level), and then extrapolates (by multiplying by 100) to the 100-year change. Linearity is an important assumption and it is likely that increasing temperatures will cause sea levels to rise faster than linear estimates, so the datapoints above are likely underestimates of the change that will be experienced.
Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewer
Below is an interactive map I created that allows you to visualize the effects of sea level rise on Tangier, with sea-level rise estimates by NOAA. By toggling the arrows and navigating through the slides at the bottom, you can see that even just one more foot of height submerges almost the entire island. Using the nearby tide gauge estimates of +1 foot within 100 years as an estimate, Tangier will lose most of its landmass by 2120. Through this data visualization, we hope to invoke emotion that leads to understanding, following the role of emotions in knowledge outlined by Jill Rettberg in her article Ways of Knowing with Data Visualization. First, a feeling of shock at the staggering amount of land loss by just one foot of sea level rise, then a realization that Tangier will very quickly become uninhabitable, leading again to a sense of loss for the community and its way of life.
These sea-level rise estimates were produced by adding the stated feet of water to the existing elevation model (linear superposition of water levels). By superimposing water levels onto existing coastlines, it does not take into account erosion or future changes in coastal geomorphology. When using this viewer, it is important to keep in mind that existing coastlines and geological features of Tangier will likely not exist, and that the above map is only an estimate based on best-available current data and predictions.
Considerations and Interrogation
When presenting this data, it’s also important to interrogate it. boyd and Crawford state that “Data analysis is most effective when researchers take account of the complex methodological processes that underlie the analysis of that data…. Without those biases and limitations being understood and outlined, misinterpretation is the result” (668). As such, I’ve presented a basic explanation of the methodology behind the two sources of NOAA data that I revisualize: the tidal gauge data and the sea-level rise estimates. The tidal gauge data is, critically, missing at Tangier, as the island lacks a tidal gauge with which to historically contextualize sea levels. I’ve tried to fill that gap with the second interactive viewer that allows you to see the potential land loss with each foot of sea level rise. This visualization too is missing data – it doesn’t provide data past 6ft, and doesn’t include estimates between feet (such as 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 ft, etc.), which are important gaps to keep in mind.
Other particularly relevant considerations from boyd and Crawford that informed this section were their questions about data accessibility and context. “Taken out of context, big data loses its meaning” (670), and I’ve tried to keep this central question at the forefront of these revisualizations, always mapping data back to Tangier. Hopefully the data, derived from large elevation and tidal datasets, retains its meaning and value when anchored to the island. boyd and Crawford also raise questions about power and access to data: who gets access, and who gets to analyze? I’ve used only public datasets, meaning that, theoretically, anyone could access and re-map and revisualize this data. However, there is also a knowledge and ability gap here; not everyone has the same experience with mapping software or the same awareness of coastal datasets. In an attempt to break down this “hierarchy around who can read the numbers” (boyd and Crawford, 674), I’ve tried to clarify the visualizations as much as possible and allow viewers to interact with and explore it themselves.
In this section, we re-contextualize sea-level rise data by remapping it onto Tangier Island. Often, climate change data is presented in aggregate estimates, such as an estimated 1.2 feet of sea level rise. By placing the data on a map in which you can visualize the projected land-loss due to sea-level rise, we offer an intimate view of the effects of climate change on Tangier. This data heavily contrasts the residents denial of climate change and support of a sea wall, but is presented without blaming the residents for their beliefs or political alignment.
Media Portrayal of Tangier (Grace)
Original Media
This is a video on Tangier Island that was filmed in 2017 by BBC. A BBC reporter visits the island to ask the residents about their thoughts on climate change and the impacts on their island. The video features many images of dark stormy skies and flooded streets; it also emphasizes the island’s support of Trump and Christian faith. The reporter prods the mayor, James ‘Ooker’ Eskridge, and other residents, like Dana Crockett, with questions about their doubt in man-made climate change. At one point, the reporter even argues with Crockett about her religious beliefs.
This is a video produced by Russia Times in 2013. Unlike the BBC video there is no narration from anyone other than the residents themselves. The video explores the history and heritage of the island as well as the residents’ daily lives. The imagery in this video is much brighter, showing more serene shots of the beach and children playing on the island. The video also gives some insight to the concerns of the residents, not just about their island sinking, but about the economic prospects for future generations as well as their fear of losing their heritage. Many residents who are interviewed respond to recent efforts from the federal government to move them off the island, citing their long standing historical and familial ties as reasons they want to stay.
Original Video Timelines Visualized
Upper (Russia Times) V1: Sea level rise/storms, V2: Domestic life, V3: History/heritage, V4: Economy/jobs, V5: Education; Lower (BBC) V1: Resident’s opinions, V2: Religion, V3: Fishing, V4: Sea level rise/storms, V5: Donald Trump
The timeline on the top shows the video on Tangier Island by Russia Times and the bottom timeline is the video produced by BBC, each are divided up by their five main themes. Notably, the themes apparent in the Russia times video are more general than that of the BBC video. In doing this the Russia Times video portrays the residents of Tangier Island that is more relatable to the viewer, focusing on themes like family and domestic life and celebrating cultural history and heritage rather than more divisive themes like support for a specific political candidate or a particular religion. Even though both videos discuss how the island is sinking, the Russia Times video spends significantly more time portraying the daily lives of the residents and how the sinking of the island affects them. Whereas, the BBC video spends much of its run time questioning the beliefs of the residents without revealing much about their lived experience. In a sense, the Russia Times video is taking a more ethnographic approach to the issue by giving a thick description of the opinions and experiences of individual residents without an overarching narrative or reporter present to contest with their answers.
Re-edited Video
In this re-edited version of the BBC video, I have only used footage from BBC and audio from the Russia Times video (though I did retain some of the audio from the BBC interviews with Mayor Ooker and Dana Crockett). Here my aim is to imagine the BBC video without their narrative and minimal presence of the reporter. I wanted to see what these same clips would look like if the residents of Tangier themselves were narrating. Though I have retained the same themes: religion, Trump, fishing, sea level rise, they seem to have a different tone with the alternative narration. I think that this version of the video puts the resident’s opinions and experiences at the forefront of, rather than trying to push a point about climate change denial. In doing this, I have attempted to channel some inner Geertz and give a thicker description of the impact of sea level rise on their lives than the BBC video offered. I think that the danger in the original video, which emphasized the resident’s doubt of anthropogenic climate change, was that it seemed to put the responsibility on them. When in reality, the people living on Tangier Island are contending with the consequences of climate change that we have all collectively contributed to regardless of what they believe the cause to be.
Conclusion (Grace, Matthew, Rei)
Tangier Island and its residents are posed to become America’s first climate change refugees. Media portrayals have frequently focused on their denial of climate change as well as their support of Trump, establishing their own method of truth and order as it pertains to the perception of Tangier that is communicated out.
Our project also has some important limitations and considerations. We do not directly interact with the residents of Tangier, and our access to them and their culture is through the lens of the BBC and through Russia Today; their interviewers, cameramen, editors, and projected audience all affected their video narratives. Acknowledging their positionality as interpreters is important to contextualize the interviews and footage we have, and we are only able to interpret their interpretations. Without the ability to directly interview residents, certain avenues of investigation are closed to us. We would have loved to further analyze the resident views regarding the government’s stance on climate change and an attempted move off the island, which could be interesting future work.
We also have our own positionality to consider; as college students who are not fishermen living on Tangier, we brought our own biases to this project. However, we’ve attempted to push back against our first dismissive instinct by providing historical narratives around the preservation of Tangier and its people, rather than focusing on the political alignment of the islanders.
Data gaps, as discussed above, include the lack of tidal data at Tangier and missing data between feet. We’ve acknowledge these gaps in the data section for viewers to keep in mind. We’ve also attempted retain meaning and value of the data, by always linking it back to Tangier. We keep the data in context. More critically, however, we raise questions of data access, data intelligibility, and the hierarchy of skills. It is likely that the residents of the island would be unable to recreate the data analysis and the visualizations. These inequalities are embedded in the datasets and the analysis, which we acknowledge.
In this project, we contextualize the portrayal of Tangier Island residents by bringing some of the climate data that they contend with, as well as by re-editing their personal narratives to interrogate the media’s portrayal of Tangier. Our project attempts to reframe this issue by privileging the localized perspectives of the Tangier Island residents. The purpose of this is to legitimize their lived experiences with the consequences of climate change without vilifying them for their beliefs and political alignment. The residents of Tangier would be unable to mitigate the effects of climate change and sea-level rise through their own actions, such as reducing emissions. Sadly, the data from NOAA confirms that Tangier and its community will likely cease to exist in 50 years.