Article: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/latino-vote-surged-2018-new-data-shows-n998481

 

This week we have studied the mobilization of the Latino community and the degree to which they can influence elections and in what circumstances that influence occurs. The anti-immigrant rhetoric that is being used to mobilize white, right-wing voters might actually have the opposite effect than intended an in fact lead to a surge of Latinx voting. Heightened anti-immigrant contexts can lead to increased political engagement of immigrants. Empirically, Berreto identifies the anti-immigrant policies used in California as explaining the switch of the state from a Republican to a democratic stronghold. As Latinos became increasingly frustrated with the anti-immigrant politics of California’s GOP, such as Prop 187, they mobilized and increasingly began to vote for democrats. White (2016) finds this trend more broadly, establishing that in communities where there is increased immigration enforcement and  implementation of security policies, there is an increase in the political engagement and activism of the Latinx community in response.

In light of the policies of the Trump administration, this could have the implication of increased voter turnout in the Latinx community in ways that will change the American electorate and the outcomes of future elections. The article I have picked discusses how there has been a surge in Latinx votes in the 2018 midterm elections, that was greater than the increase in outcomes of other groups. Given the strong anti-immigrant context and the salience of the issue, this could possibly explain the increase in the Latinx share of the vote and mobilization, especially given that 70% of Latinos feel that Trump has spoken in a way that find personally offensive. However, this shift may not necessarily have the impact that we anticipate. First, the primary voting issue identified is not immigration, so they might be driven to vote by other issues, in which they may not align against the party that is pursuing more anti-immigrant policies. Second, Latinos who do not already strongly identify with the group, might not be mobilized to vote in the same way or become engaged in opposition movements as explained in the Perez reading (2014). This leads me to two questions:

  1. Will this trend of increased voter turnout actually lead to better outcomes for the democratic party?
  2. Do Latinos make up enough of the national electorate for this increase in turnout to actually change the outcome of the elections overall, especially given the way that the electoral college is structured?