TX-18 slides (see these for corresponding slides to below descriptions)

Slide 1: Demographics

Between 2007 and 2017, there has been little, virtually unrecognizable, change in the demographic composition of Texas’ 18th Congressional District. The racial breakdown of the area has remained constant with it being predominantly made up of Hispanic/Latinos and African Americans. The foreign born population of the district has grown as the overall population has grown, but its proportion of the whole has remained largely unchanged. The foreign born population has been consistently made up of roughly 80% Hispanic/Latino origin individuals.

 

Slide 2: Existing research predicting outcomes

Extant research suggests that sudden growth of the immigrant or Hispanic population is associated with anti-immigrant views among current residents (this includes Whites as well as other racial minorities like African Americans) particularly when coupled with the issue of immigration being one that is salient at the national level which, in turn, causes people to notice and politicize changes in their area (Hopkins, 2010; Craig and Richeson, 2017). Enos (2014) goes further to suggest that even minor changes in immigrant demographics lead to exclusionary attitudes among residents. Large populations of immigrants or Latinos in general (not necessarily spikes in their numbers) are associated with Whites holding more punitive views of immigrants, being less supportive of social welfare programs, identifying as more conservative, and voting for Democrats less (Abrajano and Hajnal, 2015). Such conservative views are correlated with places than have large foreign born populations and with respondents who are White and identify as Republican, are older, and typically have lower education levels (Dunaway et al, 2010). The presence of an immigrant population is also associated with the existence of immigrant advocacy organizations who do extensive work to integrate immigrants into political and civic life, provide legal assistance, and positively influence local policy and programs concerning immigrants in local government (de Graauw, 2008; Andersen, 2008). In a similarly positive vein, immigrant populations promote Spanish news outlets which are more positive and informative about immigration, which engenders more positive views among their audience and is beneficial to the community of Spanish-speaking immigrants and Latinos (Abrajano and Singh, 2008). Conversely, mainstream news outlets typically house much anti-immigrant sentiment, particularly those in border states, which spurs similar tones in their audience and is ultimately bad for immigrants (Branton, 2009). Ultimately, these outcomes present a mixed bag of positive and negative outcomes regarding immigrant experiences, media coverage, and public opinion.

 

Slide 3: Mapping outcomes onto TX-18

Given the presented research on the impacts of immigrant demographics, and the anticipation that these would present a varied assortment of outcomes, I predict a few contrasting results for TX-18. Regarding immigrant experiences, there are a wide assortment of advocacy organizations in Houston that lead me to believe that immigrants will integrate well politically in TX-18. Texas, and thus Houston, is also home to one of the largest assortments of Spanish news-media in the country (Martinez, 2016); this will lead to a high amount of more pro-immigrant sentiment which is good in and of itself but also supportive for the existing immigrant population. Regarding media coverage specifically, beyond Spanish news, since Houston is only 350 miles away from the Southern border there will likely be larger amounts of immigrant-related stories, which will be mainly negative. Regarding public opinion, since there has been no influxes of foreign born or Latino individuals, the sentiment around immigrants should have been fairly consistent over the last 10 years or so. Further, due to the continuously large Latino and foreign born populations (far above US average), these opinions are likely to be conservative and somewhat hostile towards immigrants among Whites and African Americans in TX-18. These unsympathetic views and the negative mainstream media coverage will also feed into a negative immigrant experience. These predictions, overall, stack up to paint a depressing situation for immigrants in TX-18 with their main solace being found in advocacy groups, Spanish media, and other immigrants or residents of Latino origin.

 

Slide 4: Research plan

I will test my hypothesis about public opinion. To do this I shall look at public opinion data to explore the prediction stemming from Hopkins work that, since the foreign born and Latino/Hispanic population has remained relatively unchanged over the past 10 years or so (2007-2017), negative attitudes towards immigrants and Latinos/Hispanics should have stayed relatively constant in that time period too. To do this I will gather public opinion data from the reputed ANES Time Series data (a longitudinal study of public opinion) from 2008, 2012, and 2016, for TX-18 congressional district. The relevant questions in this survey include: a feelings thermometer towards illegal immigrants; a feelings thermometer towards Hispanics; and the respondent’s views on immigration policy regarding citizenship, government checks, and overall policy preferences. I will then explore the bi-variate relationships between responses to these questions and the demographics of the respondents (race, age, party, education level). Following this initial analysis I will regress the question responses on the demographics aforementioned to identify any significant relationships. This will allow me to conclude whether or not the expected respondents hold conservative views, as the prior research suggests, and if these views have changed over time.