Up to 2010, then-Congressman Ted Poe (R- Texas 2nd) easily won elections with over 85% of the vote, with the district being so Republican that Democrats did not even promote a candidate. In 2011, Texas’s 2nd District was redrawn, including less rural areas and concentrating more in the heavily populated and more Latino Houston suburbs. While Poe still won reelection from 2012 to 2016 easily, the margins grew smaller every year, with Poe taking only 60% of the vote in 2016 and Democrats finding candidates who could reach over 30% of the vote. In 2018, with a Democratic wave on the rise and Democrats hoping to capitalize on the large foreign-born/Latino population in the district, the race was very close. Dan Crenshaw managed to win the race, but by less than 8 percentage points, with commentators largely contributing his victory to a Saturday Night Live appearance where he received an apology after a joke was made about his eyepatch on the show (Crenshaw received the wound as a result of combat action).

There are several political theories relevant to Texas’s 2nd District. The first, from Professor Tom Wong, predicted that areas with larger total foreign-born populations would have representatives supportive of less restrictionist immigration policies for a few reasons: Naturalized American citizens would likely be biased toward being less restrictive due to their personal experiences being immigrants. Green-card holders, who would become citizens in a few years, would contribute to a larger share of the voting base in future elections and would also be more likely to support less restrictive policies because of their personal immigration experiences. Finally, a large total foreign-born population may include many undocumented immigrants who would protest restrictionist policies and pressure family members with citizenship to vote for candidates that are against these restrictionist policies. The second theory is that a higher naturalized citizen population will lead to more support for less restrictionist policies for the same reasons cited earlier (personal immigration experiences and potential undocumented family members). The final theory is from Professors Tom Wong and Karthick Ramakrishnan, which that areas with more Republicans are more likely to support restrictionist immigration ordinances because of strong local opposition to illegal immigration or policy entrepreneurs framing illegal immigration as one of the region’s largest problems.

Texas’s 2nd District has a much higher foreign-born proportion of the population than the country as a whole (21.4% vs. 13.7% nationally). This would suggest that the district’s representatives would be less restrictionist. The district also has a higher proportion of naturalized citizens than the nation as a whole (8.6% vs. 6.2% nationally), which would also predict higher support for less restrictionist immigration policies. The preceding statistics were calculated from 2017 US Census data, making it recent enough to accurately draw inferences from. The final point regarding Republican areas being more likely to support restrictionist ordinances was tested using data from the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures a congressional district’s partisan leanings compared to the country as a whole. In contrast to the previous two hypotheses, the 11-point advantage given to Republicans indicates the representative will be slightly more likely to support restrictionist immigration policies.

Congressman Ted Poe definitely fit the conservative end of the political spectrum, though he was not one of the leaders of restrictionist policies in the House of Representatives. According to NumbersUSA, a think-tank that advocates for lower levels of both legal and illegal immigration, Congressman Poe received an 88% rating, indicating high support for restrictionist policies. However, immigration was not one of his most important issues in Congress, as only 11% of the bills he sponsored focused on immigration. Congressman Dan Crenshaw, however, has made his support for restrictionist immigration policies the forefront of his campaign, which contrasts the first two hypotheses made by Professor Wong regarding high foreign-born populations and naturalized citizen populations making members support less restrictive policies. Out of 12 videos on his congressional website, 6 focused on immigration and support for restrictionist immigration policies (i.e. support for President Trump’s proposed wall and increased spending for Border Patrol). Additionally, out of 105 tweets made by Congressman Crenshaw from January 1st, 2019 to March 1st, 2019, 49 discussed immigration (47% of total tweets). Moreover, of these 49 immigration tweets, 45 were in support of restrictionist policies (94%). These points prove that immigration has become an important issue in Texas’s 2nd District and support for restrictionist policies high among its current congressman.