Summary: Yvette D. Clarke has historically been able to hold onto her position in New York’s 9th Congressional District easily. However, in recent years, the District has become increasingly gentrified, and the white voter base has become larger and more politically powerful. While they remain a minority, this voter base has threatened Clarke’s position in congress. If Clarke wants to continue holding onto her position and wants to remain a voice for the Caribbean-American immigrant community in coming years, she needs to do outreach to local immigrant advocacy groups.

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In 2018, incumbent Yvette D. Clarke, Representative of New York’s 9th Congressional District, barely eked out a win against Democratic contender Adem Bunkeddeko by a margin of 1,075 votes. While Bunkeddeko’s policy platform largely mirrored Clarke’s own, his voting base was completely different. His support came not from the previously dominant low-income African-American and Caribbean-American communities, but from the majority-white, newly gentrified areas of the 9th Congressional District.

This near upset should be a warning for Clarke: she has relied too strongly on her former regional domination and has not paid enough attention to the demographic changes occurring to her district. To win in the future, Clarke must attempt greater voter outreach to the immigrant communities that support her; by doing so, she will increase her own chances of reelection while also ensuring greater integration and representation for Caribbean-American immigrants.

Elected to Congress in 2006, Clarke has since served for New York’s 11th Congressional District, and subsequently the 9th Congressional District post-redistricting in 2011. Clarke historically won her seat with ease due to her largely Democratic, low-income, minority voting constituency. Indeed, before 2018, Clarke had defeated Democratic challengers by a margin of 50% and Republican challengers by at least 70%.

Clarke maintained her support by continuing to advocate for Caribbean-Americans and Caribbean-American immigrants. Brooklyn is home to over 300,000 Caribbean-Americans, the majority of whom live in the 9th Congressional District, which has about 750,000 residents. Clarke, herself Caribbean-American, appealed to this constituency through her policymaking. Indeed, according to Clarke’s own website, some of her focuses include “Caribbean Issues” and “Immigration”: using these focuses, Clarke has been able to capture a majority of votes via the median voter strategy, by which, according to a study by Tom Wong of UCSD, politicians will place themselves along a partisan spectrum in order to capture the most votes possible. In other words, understanding that her base was mostly Caribbean-American, Clarke has made herself a proponent of immigrant and Caribbean-American issues in order to appeal to the most voters possible.

But Clarke has become complacent. She has not updated her “Caribbean Issues” page since 2017, and her “Immigration” page addresses Trump’s policies rather than focusing on members of her own constituency. Her “Immigration Services” page, additionally, is sparse, directing readers to her office number or to a general FAQ on the Department of Homeland Security’s website for help.

The lack of current immigration resources is especially a problem since the base Clarke appeals to contains a large number of undocumented immigrants, who cannot vote unless they have gone through the naturalization process. This diminished voter base is particularly worrisome considering the population changes that have happened in recent years. When Clarke first took office in 2007, her district was 58% black and 27% white. Today, with the gentrification of areas like Park Slope, Prospect Heights, and Crown Heights, and the subsequent influx of white voters, the population demographics have changed to 46.9% black and 37.2% white. This rising white, voting population, compounded with the lack of naturalized Caribbean-American voters, was bound to create a political storm for Clarke.

This is exactly what happened in 2018. Although Clarke’s voting base outnumbered Bunkeddeko’s, Bunkeddeko’s mobilization of white residents was much stronger.

Since white voters still remain a minority in the 9th Congressional District, their political power is worrying. If the congressman elected is not representative of the African-American and Caribbean-American bloc, then this bloc’s interests won’t be fully represented. Policymaking depends on whether a politician actually wants to capture the votes of a particular group; thus, if Bunkeddeko had won the election by capturing the votes of wealthier, non-minority residents, he might continue to appeal to them and would not be cognizant of the needs of the remaining residents in his constituency.

New white residents are also expected to react negatively to their new demographics, at least at first. According to Marisa Abrajano and Zoltan Hajnal of UCSD, sudden changes in demographics will induce anti-minority and anti-immigrant sentiments within white residents. These attitudes cannot be tempered by a politician who relies completely on the white-resident vote.

To mediate this, Clarke should work to improve the political mobilization of the Caribbean-American community. She can no longer rely on easily winning the median voter. Demographics are changing, and without mobilization, Clarke could lose her seat, and Caribbean-Americans could lose a voice in congress.

But Clarke should be able to facilitate mobilization. As a Caribbean-American herself, Clarke already has intimate ties to her district, and reaching out to the Caribbean-American community should be effective. Clarke should therefore attempt to reach out to local immigrant advocacy groups, which, according to Els de Graauw of Baruch College, can connect with constituents successfully.

And, as Kristi Andersen of Syracuse University claims, local immigrant advocacy groups become stronger when linked together with other, specifically political, organizations. Thus, if Clarke can forge a relationship between her office and local immigrant advocacy groups, the strength of local immigrant advocacy groups will grow. Immigrants will also feel a closer tie to Clarke herself, ensuring that they are loyal to her in election seasons. This tactic will also help boost voter participation: nonprofits help mobilize people during campaign seasons, and can even help in the naturalization process, ensuring that Clarke’s base can grow even larger.

Of course, as a caveat, none of this will stop the continual gentrification of the district. Yet, this is exactly the reason why Clarke should focus her energy on improving local community organizations. These organizations will last, and when representatives inevitably change, these organizations will have the experience and knowledge necessary to campaign for immigrant rights.

So perhaps it’s good that Bunkeddeko ran against Clarke: if anything, it is a wake-up call for Clarke. But this depends on whether Clarke takes her lesson. If Clarke wants to be able to hold the district in coming years, she needs to be able to adapt. And if, down the line, Clarke wants Caribbean-Americans in Brooklyn to have a vote, she needs to mobilize them.