Uncategorized – Immigration Politics, Policymaking in the U.S.

Category: Uncategorized

Sometimes, Less is Not More: Why Mikie Sherrill Should Speak Out on Immigration (NJ-11)

May 15, 2019 / Selam Bellete / 0 Comments

SUMMARY: For the final project, I decided to write an op-ed addressing how I felt my district’s representative should act on the issue of immigration. While completing the first two assignments, I observed that Mikie Sherrill was very active in regards to some issues (healthcare, taxes, gun control, infrastructure) but had almost nothing to say about immigration. In my op-ed, I argue that she should support different types of policies in order to increase her negotiating power in Congress. Since Democrats support permissive policies and Republicans support restrictive ones, Sherrill can increase her ability to work within and outside of her party by supporting bills that contain both of these aspects. Secondly, I argue that Sherrill can speak more convincingly about why immigration is good in order to help herself and the immigrants of NJ-11.

Sometimes, Less is Not More: Why Mikie Sherrill Should Speak Out on Immigration

Pete Buttigieg has already made a name for himself by becoming the first openly gay candidate to run for the Democratic party in a presidential election, but his numerous accolades make him stand out even more. As a Rhodes Scholar, Harvard graduate, former war veteran, and someone who can speak seven different languages, Buttigieg has already accomplished more in his lifetime than many of today’s most esteemed politicians. Unfortunately, Buttigieg’s remarkable resumé hasn’t been able to compensate for his lack of specific policy proposals. When questioned about this on CNN last month, he responded by stating that he wanted to communicate his values without “drowning people in minutiae”. This certainly sounds eloquent, but at the end of the day it does not get the job done. House representative Mikie Sherrill could learn a lesson from Mayor Pete Buttigieg when it comes to immigration, as it has not been an issue of focus for her so far. If Mikie Sherrill advocates for permissive and centrist immigration policies in addition to positively speaking about the issue to the residents of New Jersey’s 11^th Congressional district, she has the potential to strengthen both her political and social power.

For years, border security and immigration reform have been issues that divide Democratic and Republican politicians along party lines. In an analysis of House and Senate voting records for four border enforcement bills that were passed in 2005 and 2006, Jason Casellas and David Leal found a statistically significant correlation between party affiliation and voting choice: Democrats were more likely to vote against these bills, while Republicans were more likely to vote in favor of them. It is no secret that the Democratic party has become more liberal while the GOP has seen an influx in conservatism, and these shifts are part of the reason why partisanship – which has essentially become synonymous with political and moral ideology – strongly governs the majority of representatives’ opinions. Consequently, many discussions involving immigration focus on one party opposing the other’s proposals, instead of putting differences aside and creating effective reform.

By openly and strongly advocating for policies that remove the hurdles immigrants must overcome to become citizens, Mikie Sherrill can align herself with her party’s liberal interests and make other progressive Democratic representatives more interested in working with her on the issue. However, Sherrill should still continue to display support for immigration policies containing aspects of permissiveness and reinforcement in order to increase Republicans’ likelihood of cooperating with her. This would allow Sherrill to act as a bridge between the two parties, which is important given that Democrats and Republicans in Congress this year have had difficulty reaching compromises on immigration reform. Increased cooperation would lead to a decrease in the effect of partisanship on voting choice, which could pave the way for common-sense legislation that is sympathetic to immigrants’ needs and citizens’ concerns.

Secondly, I believe that Mikie Sherrill should utilize more rhetoric that empathizes with the needs of immigrants and highlights their assets if she wants to remain popular amongst Democratic voters in NJ’s 11^th congressional district. So far, she has demonstrated a moderate attitude towards immigration: in an August 2018 press release, she stated that she wants to “solve our immigration crisis by fixing our broken system and securing our borders”. Although her statement hints at legitimate desires, political psychology research demonstrates that statements without a clear position can harm her chances of re-election. In a study headed by Kerri Milita, participants who read fictitious statements from fictitious candidates reported feeling more certain about how the candidate would vote when the statements were clear (as opposed to when they were ambiguous). These results indicate that members of her Democratic base who are passionate about immigration reform may feel less confident about her ability to act on the issue given her previous statement, which could negatively affect her public approval and polling results. This is already supported by their current attitudes, since immigrant rights advocacy groups in NJ-11 have already called Sherrill out for not taking a more liberal stance on family reunification policies.

By avoiding ambiguous statements, Mikie Sherrill will have the power to foster positive relationships between native-born and foreign-born citizens. New Jersey’s population has the third highest percentage of immigrants, which clearly makes their social and economic success in our state an important issue. Their well-being hinges upon their ability to integrate into American society – which in turn is dependent on their ability to interact with other non-immigrants in a healthy manner. In a recent political science experiment, participants who engaged in a perspective-taking exercise from a refugee’s point of view were more likely to support the resettlement of Syrian refugees than participants who were just shown information about American resettlement policies. Those in the first condition demonstrated a noticeable increase in empathy and respect for immigrants, which has the capability of positively affecting their social behavior around immigrants.

If she shares firsthand stories of immigrants in NJ-11 and stresses their desire to achieve the quintessential ideals of the American dream, she will essentially be carrying out a similar perspective-taking exercise on their behalf. By making specific and positive immigration rhetoric a mainstay of her town hall meetings, Mikie Sherrill can set the stage for an unprecedented increase in pro-immigrant attitudes among native-born residents, which could potentially result in their compassionate and welcoming behavior towards immigrants. These friendly interactions are vital for immigrants who have not yet established strong social networks, and they can also work to counteract any negative perceptions of immigrants held by conservative citizens.

Admittedly, I do not want to convey a lack of support for Mikie Sherrill with my arguments. It is wonderful that our district is being represented by a Democrat for the first time since 1985, and I appreciate the work she has done in Congress to advocate for our veterans. But given our president’s support of nativist sentiments and my own background as a first-generation Ethiopian-American, I cannot remain satisfied with my congressional representative’s current treatment of immigration policy reform.

NY 15- The Bronx: District Demographics and their Impacts Results

May 14, 2019 / Catherine Sweeney / 0 Comments

The 15th Congressional District has consistently had a huge Hispanic population and a large foreign-born population. The Hispanic population has remained consistently high only fluctuating down .4 percentage points since 2017. The Foreign-Born population has grown in the past decade, gaining 5.5 percentage points since 2007. In light of prior research, it is likely that the relatively stable 67% Latino and 37% foreign-born populations in the Bronx bode well for new arrivals from Latin America. First, the primary Latino immigrants will likely have socially and politically integrative experiences and exposure to welcoming policies similar to Fernandez-Kelly’s findings in Trenton. Furthermore, the prevalence of immigrants in need, points to a high prevalence of immigrant organizations with make fora more positive context of reception. Immigrant advocacy interest groups will be major forces since they providing social services, advising on naturalization and legal problems, and, facilitating political participation (de Graauw 2008; Anderson 2008; Fernandez-Kelly 2018).

To examine the immigrant experience in the Bronx, I conducted semi-structured interviews with individuals who work for or with the Bronx Immigration Partnership (BIP). To recruit these individuals, I, first, reached out to the Bronx Immigration Partnership and requested interviews with staff members. Then, I reached out to each of their sixteen affiliate organizations to secure a second interview. In these interviews, I asked about them about their background and how they came to immigrant advocacy work, the challenges that immigrants face in the Bronx, how their organization impacts the lives of immigrants (context of reception), how their organization works in tandem with the local government, and how the immigrant experience or context of reception for immigrants is in the Bronx as compared to other Boroughs and other cities. These questions are pointed enough to gauge how immigrants are assisted by these organizations in becoming socially, politically, and economically integrated into society.

For my interviews, I spoke to the organization coordinator for the Bronx Immigration Partnership and an Immigration Attorney at the Bronx Defenders. In my interview with the BIP coordinator, they spoke to the difficulties of immigrants and the need for a “coordinated safety net of immigration services”. While the Bronx has over sixteen organizations involved in immigration advocacy work, many immigrants do not know where to go for assistance. They also discussed the importance of advocacy on different levels both by providing personal services and by advocating for immigrant policy changes in Albany. In my interview with an immigration attorney for the Bronx Defenders, they spoke about the importance of providing a holistic defense to their clients. They said a criminal case affects every aspect of a person’s life: “It can affect your family, your immigration status, your housing situation; it can impact all these different aspects of your life.” They said, “it’s not just about representing them on the immigration case, it’s figuring out whatever support they may need and referring them to the services that might be necessary.” The Bronx Immigration Partnership is a special system that connects all of these services together so that immigrants can be supported in a number of ways.

In conclusion, I first identified the struggles that immigrants face in the Bronx, then, the role of immigrant organizations in providing assistance to them, and lastly, how this all contributes to an overall positive context of reception for immigrants in the Bronx. In regards to immigrant struggles, the informants identified a high prevalence of poverty and crime, vulnerability to immigration fraud and difficulty being aware of assistance programs and navigating these services. There are over 16 organizations that provide assistance to immigrants in the Bronx and it is difficult to know about the services they provide. Overall, the work of immigrant organizations ensures smoother integration and a more positive context of reception for new arrivals. On the individual level, they provide legal defense and consul, social services like health care, housing assistance, and English learning programs, and provide immigrant status consultations. On a broader level, through impact litigation they fight injustices that affect groups of immigrants and through advocacy to local, state, and national government, they positively influence policy. As predicted, the nonprofit presence helps create a more positive context of reception for immigrants.

TX-27: Demographic shifts and their effects on an immigrant’s experience

May 1, 2019 / Andres Larrieu / 0 Comments

Slide 1:

The district’s demographics are somewhat complicated to analyze because of the 2012 redistricting in Texas. Current TX 27 currently covers most of the land from district TX 14 before the redistricting. Current TX 27 includes the city of Corpus Christi, a predominantly Latino city. This incorporation of the city into the new district explains the dramatic rise in the Latino population in 2012 with respect to 2007. It is safest to analyze the recent demographic changes from 2012 to 2017, considering they too provide important changes. While the small Asian and Black minorities barely changed, the Latino population actually grew by +2.5pp, just about as much as the White only population dropped (-2.6pp). Considering it is only a five year span, it is a significant enough demographic shift to apply the research from this semester.

Slide 2:

This assignment will analyze the research from three different areas: (1) The immigrant’s experience, (2) the influence of media on the perspective of immigrants, (3) an immigrant’s reception, or local sentiment towards immigrants and how they shape the immigrant’s experience.
1. Immigrant advocacy groups in a district provide most of the support for immigrant integration (de Graauw 2008).
2. The framing of immigrants on media does have an influence on the audience’s perspective (Abarajano, Marisa, and Singh 2009). Although immigrants are usually framed negatively, there is some evidence that media in Spanish tends to frame immigrants more favorably than their English counterparts. (Adida, Lo, and Platas 2018). Finally, proximity to the border makes the issue more salient to media (Branton, Regina P. and Johanna Dunaway. 2009).
3. A community with shifting demographics can have stronger anti-immigrant sentiments based on the saliency of the issue (Hopkins 2010). All these pieces of research will affect the general experience of immigrants in the community, especially of Latino immigrants.

Slide 3:

Although the research would seem to show clear paths, TX 27 is a contradicting district. It has a majority Latino population, while it also has a Republican majority. Regardless, there should be some sort of backlash due the decreasing white population, and the small size of foreign born residents should also play a roll.
1. Because of the small foreign born population, and the strong Republican support, it is likely that the government does not support foreign born residents enough to secure integration. This small immigrant population also suggests that pro-immigrant advocacy groups are not as powerful nor relevant. However, it is possible that pro-Latino groups work to achieve this integration.
2. Spanish media around the region should frame immigrants more positively, while English media will frame it more negatively than its Spanish counterpart.
3. There is likely to be an anti-immigrant sentiment because of the shifting Latino and White demographics. In general, it is likely that there will not be a strong pro-immigrant sentiment. The decreasing White community will probably oppose immigration. However, there is likely to be a strong pro-Latino sentiment, which helps integrate incoming Latino immigrants.

Slide 4:

This research proposal is to test the 1st prediction. As a control, we will compare the results to CA 14, Nancy Pelosi’s district. This district has strong pro-immigrant advocacy groups, which will help contrast possible outcomes. First, we would ask both Latinos and foreign born residents of TX 27 the following questions:
 Do you feel well integrated in your community?
 Have you received help from a pro-immigration organization?
Then, we would check progress from pro-immigrant advocacy (and pro-Latino groups) groups to affect change locally. This can take the shape of lobbying, community organizing, or successful legislation passed. To narrow down the scope, we would only look at Corpus Christi and San Francisco within the span of 2007-2017. With these methods, we can test whether Latinos and immigrants feel welcome in their communities, and whether pro-immigrant organizations have helped narrow down the gap between residents and immigrants.

CT-4: Jim Himes (D)

March 27, 2019 / Henry Parkhurst / 0 Comments

Himes announced his candidacy on April 19, 2007, quickly receiving endorsements from several political action committees. His campaign was targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) as a potential flip; indeed, he beat Republican incumbent Christopher Shays by a slim margin of 4 percentage points and has held the seat since. The figure in slide 1 shows vote counts by party in every election subsequent for this seat. Two patterns emerge that are consistent with broader literature. First, turnout was higher in presidential election years. Second, as a Democrat, Himes faced tighter races in Obama’s midterm years (2010 and 2014); we see tighter spreads in those years. (The President’s party typically underperforms in midterms.)

This slide cites literature that we have reviewed in class, mostly focusing on understanding systematic relationships between district-level characteristics and representatives’ propensity to vote for restrictive or permissive immigration policies. Multivariate analyses from Tom Wong and others find consistent patterns; members’ political party can predict these outcomes better than any other variable. However, party is downstream of properties of the district, and none of these studies directly measured constituents’ opinions on immigration. We might wonder then, whether it is in fact party, or instead these unobserved upstream properties, that are truly causing more or less restrictive floor votes. For that reason, we especially care about individual cases when investigating this question. Demographic characteristics like percentage of Hispanics or percent foreign-born are found to be significant, but with very weak point estimates, in Wong’s regressions (2014). This suggests these factors might retain salience in individual cases.

CT-4’s characteristics predict Himes to be quite liberal on immigration. The district is suburban and generally well-educated. It has a higher proportion of registered Democrats and a higher median income than the national average. Himes is nonetheless relatively conservative among House Democrats. His DW-NOMINATE score is -0.241, making him more liberal than 54% of the House, and more conservative than 84% of House Democrats. (source: Voteview) The relative wealth of CT-4 is perhaps the best explainer for this score; as former chair of the New Democrat Coalition, Himes has made clear his commitment to “pro-growth” policies including lower taxes. This neoliberal outlook would presume a preference for more open immigration policies, too.

Himes is active on Twitter, but not particularly so with respect to immigration. He has mostly criticized the President’s border wall proposal, arguing that it is ineffectual. On his website, he expresses a commitment to border security, along with a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants “in order to ensure that everyone pays their full and fair share of taxes.” Himes is not a legislative leader on the issue of immigration, as you can see in the top right hand corner of slide 4; his only sponsored bill was defeated in 2010. He has only broken with House Democrats a couple times on immigration votes: once in 2012 re: skilled immigration, and once in 2018 on a symbolic resolution about the voting enfranchisement.

Connor McCarthy (IA-4)

March 8, 2019 / Connor McCarthy / 0 Comments

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1zzcdFEYpqfZp90B1XQMkYSOY4p-tPDJzzYTvsbVMHjY/edit#slide=id.g5256ff8a54_0_0

Slide 1)
The 4th district of Iowa was remapped in 2003 and consisted of the central north portion of the state. In 2013, it was yet again redistricted and the incumbent Tom Latham opted to move to the 3rd district leaving Steve King (the 5th district incumbent) to govern the 4th district which he has continued to do for six years. Over the course of the last few elections, King has won relatively comfortably with the closest race coming in 2012 where he won 53% of the votes. These counties include an overwhelming Republican contingency which is reflected in their annual appointment of a Republican senator dating back to 1994. Furthermore, there is a polarizing ethnic makeup, with nearly 96% of the population as white. Lastly, the median is around $55,000 which is slightly below the state average.

Slide 2)
There are a few theories of existing literature which can help us better understand policy making with regards to immigration and are pertinent to Iowa’s 4th district. In Wong’s piece, she points out how pro-restriction and pro-immigrant groups are overwhelmingly influenced by party composition. Republicans tend to support stricter borders, while Democrats argue that a more liberal approach is beneficial for our country. As a result, Republican counties are more likely to not only support anti-immigration sentiment, but also cooperate with federal law enforcement to combat the problem of illegal aliens. In Casellas’ article he discusses the economic tension which can arise with migrant workers seeking low skilled jobs. He proposes that counties with lower income individuals would support strict immigration laws in order to ensure their job security. Wong also comments on the phenomenon that when there are rapid changes in racial or ethnic makeups, this can be accompanied by negative opinions towards migrants. Though there are economic and demographic factors which are import to acknowledge, the most important variable, which is echoed throughout the existing literature, is that policy making is most notably affected by political factors as legislators consistently act along party lines when discussing immigration.

Slide 3)
Given these trends from the previous slide, we can now predict immigration policy in Iowa’s 4th district. Every county within the 4th district is Republican. With this rampant conservative partisanship throughout King’s region it would be safe to say they would support anti-immigration policy. Not only are Republicans more likely to support regulatory bills, they are twice as likely to offer restrictionist amendments. As previously discussed, the evidence across multiple studies shows that partisanship has the largest effect on immigration legislation, and Republicans overwhelmingly vote against immigration. Additionally, Wong mentions the theory of identity politics, that immigration policies are shaped by societal definitions of citizenship. She continues to say that areas with large and rapid changes in ethnic makeup, like the 130% increase in Latinos since 2000, would likely be accompanied by increased cooperation with federal law enforcement, and removal of any illegal immigrants. This seemingly homogenous distribution of white, lower class, republican members of the 4th district would provoke incredibly anti-immigrant policy making.

Slide4)
Steve King’s website clearly conveys his message on immigration. He believes that as a country we must secure our borders in order to keep the illegal aliens out. King has even proposed a wall, similar to Trump’s design, but incorporated a layer of barbed wire at the top. He adamantly opposes amnesty and has compared the separation of families at the border to abortion separating a baby from his/her mother. All five paragraphs on his website exhibit intense rhetoric demonizing illegal immigrants and condemning their presence in America. In addition to the wall, he has filed the Illegal Deduction Elimination Act which would make wages paid to illegal immigrants non-deductible for businesses. He also reintroduced for the fifth time the Birthright Citizens Act which would restrict the automatic citizenship to any child born to illegal-alien parents in the United States, which received twenty cosponsors. Immigration appears to be of the utmost importance to King as nearly ⅓ of his voting history resides within immigration matters.