Slide 1: Predicted Results

This slide shows predicted results of how different factors influence immigration coverage by the media based on previous research. Branton and Dunaway’s “Spatial Proximity to the US-Mexico Border and Newspaper Coverage of Immigration Issues” say that closer proximity to the US-Mexico border increases negative immigration coverage. This would apply more to local levels of media. Since TX-23 shares a large portion of the border with Mexico, it is more likely that coverage of immigration will be primarily negative. This article also states that high Latino populations increase negative media. TX-23 is 70% Latino. This will increase negative coverage as well. Hopkins’ piece “Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition” argues that a higher salience of immigration in the news. Based on this, it can be predicted, whether on a local or national level, that if there is a greater quantity of immigration coverage, it is more likely to be negative. Abrajano and Hajnal suggest in White Backlash that there are significant correlations between the Republican Party and higher levels of negative immigration media. TX-23 is about 48% Republican, so some local coverage on immigration will be negative, but not all of it. It will most likely correlate with the party identification of the district. These predictions, however, may not be entirely accurate. TX-23 is known as being a swing district with a moderate representative who does not focus on immigration, so all predictions may not be accurate.

Slide 2: Data Used to Test Predictions     

The two news sources I compared were The Alpine Avalanche and Fox News. The Alpine Avalanche is one of the largest local newspapers in TX-23. Fox News is a prominent national news source that is known for being very conservative. The articles tracked were from December 11, 2018 to January 31, 2019 during the government shutdown over border wall funding debates. The code words used to narrow down these articles were “Border,” “wall,” “immigrant,” “undocumented,” “immigration,” “shutdown,” “Latino,” “Hispanic,” “Mexico,” “illegal immigrant,” and “illegal immigration.” These factors helped narrow down the search results to determine what portions of the articles involved immigration discussion. By comparing a local news source and a national news source, it will help test if the previous predictors are applicable to local media, national media, or both.

Slide 3: Results

This slide depicts two graphs which show the results of tested code words, one for The Alpine Avalanche and the other for Fox News. The graphs show which code word was searched, how many articles that code word appeared in, and what percentage this represented of the total numbers of articles. There were 73 articles published by The Alpine Avalanche between December 11, 2018 and January 31, 2019. Out of these articles, very few of them involved immigration-related topics. Many of the code words overlapped in the same few articles. The articles which did appear with these code words were very neutral and objective. Some were right-leaning or made a point of referencing immigration related to drugs in a negative way, but it was overwhelmingly neutral. The highest percentage of immigration-related articles was with the word “border” at 5.5%. Between these dates, Fox News published a total of 11,133 articles. In comparison to The Alpine Avalanche, Fox News had a much higher concentration of immigration-related stories, all of which were negative towards the subject. Similarly to The Alpine Avalanche, Fox News’s most popular code word was also “border” which represented 19.8% of the total articles. They are very different levels of news coverage, so these numbers do have to be interpreted differently because of the great difference of numbers in the total articles published. Regardless, Fox News, at a national level, had a much higher level of code words used in comparison to a newspaper at a local level.

Slide 4: Conclusions

One of the major differences between the articles in The Alpine Avalanche and Fox News were the way immigration-related topics and border wall issues were presented. The Alpine Avalanche presented neutral articles which showed both sides of the debated issues. Fox News showed these topics in a very negative light. Based on the results, not all of the previous predictions were accurate when applied to a national news sources and a local news source in TX-23. Proximity to the border and Latino populations were not an accurate predictor here. TX-23’s close proximity to the border did not increase negative immigration coverage because The Alpine Avalanche’s articles were not negative. Since Fox News is a national news outlet, the idea of proximity is not applicable. The high Latino populations in TX-23 also did not increase negative media as predicted. However, predictions of salience and Republican Party connections were accurate. Local media had little immigration coverage, so articles were not negative. Fox News, on the other hand, had a high salience of immigration-related coverage, and it was, as predicted, negative. In addition, TX-23 consists of about 48% Republican voters. Articles were not immensely negative, though some did lean right depending on the code word. Fox News’ readers and viewers are almost entirely Republican, so nearly all related articles were anti-immigrant. The fact that only half of these predictors were accurate shows the differences between local and national media coverage. These differences may be, as mentioned in slide 1, because TX-23 is a unique district itself. So, even though predictions based on prior research may be accurate most of the time, it is possible that TX-23’s unique characteristics, as well as the polarized state of 2019 has shifted the expected results.

This slide shows three charts which show population demographics of TX-23 today, in 2009, and how they have changed in the past ten years. Overall, the shifts in racial, ethnic, and foreign-born populations were fairly insignificant. The greatest changes were in the White (white alone), Hispanic, and foreign-born populations. There was as slight increase in Hispanic and foreign-born populations and a decrease in the White population. This is not very surprising considering that increases in minority populations have, in the past, lead to white citizens leaving an area. Considering that the total population of TX-23 decreased by only a little over 35,000 it is not surprising that demographics did not experience great changes. TX-23 has not been redistricted since 2003, its economy is fairly stable, and its socio-economic traits have not shown notable change in about fifteen years. This means that many people are not moving and staying in their homes, so demographics are not likely to change.

This shows the conclusions of previous research on three effects of population characteristics: immigrants experiences, media coverage on immigration, and public opinion on immigration. Rene R. Rocha’s “Ethnic Context and Immigration Policy Preferences Among Latinos and Anglos” explains that higher concentration of Latino populations influence greater Latino solidarity and liberal policymaking. Regina Branton and Johanna Dunaway argue in “Spatial Proximity to the U.S.-Mexico Border and Newspaper Coverage of Immigration Issues” that the closer a district is to the US-Mexico border, as well as higher Latino populations, the more negative immigration coverage it will experience from the media. This would lead to more negative media coverage of immigration because it would be seen as a more present, high-risk issue, not to mention that districts closer to the border are more likely to have larger Latino populations. Abrajano and Hajnal discuss populations’ influence on public opinion in White Backlash: Immigration, Race, and American Politics. They argue that higher populations of Latino citizens will lead to greater immigration opposition. This is true because of the threat narrative. White citizens will be more likely to fear immigration issues if the ‘threat’ seems more present. Similarly, Daniel Hopkins explains in “”Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition” that changes in immigrant demographics increase immigration opposition, especially if there is an increase in immigrant populations. Like high Latino populations, this presents a more prominent idea of a threat, as if immigrant populations are taking over a district.      

Based on prior research presented in the previous slide, one could predict that the large Latino population in TX-23 would experience more unity, solidarity, and immigrant-friendly politics. This would make for a more positive, welcoming immigrant experience. However, this may not be applicable to TX-23 because even though they have high Latino populations, they also have high white populations, which would increase the fear of immigration and Latinos and anti-immigrant attitudes. Media coverage on immigration in this area will most likely be negative because of its proximity to the US-Mexico border. TX-23 shares a large portion of the border with Mexico, so the media would be more likely to show immigration in a negative light because there is much easier access for immigration along the border of this district. The fact that this district already has high Latino populations increases its chances to experience negative media coverage of immigration. Public opinions of immigration are likely to be low in TX-23. They have high Latino populations and have experienced a slight increase in immigration in the past ten years. These factors, in addition to the negative influence on the media, will result in more negative views of immigration in TX-23 because the ‘threat’ to the community is more prominent.

Examining immigrant experiences can be done through qualitative interviews. There are a great number of immigration interest groups in Southern Texas. Leaders of these organizations would be good candidates to interviews because they could give details on immigrant integration in the community. They would be fairly easy to get in touch with through their contact information provided on their websites. They could also provide ways to get in touch with immigrants in the community who might be willing to provide information on their own personal experiences. Questions could be asked about lifestyle, community involvement, and community solidarity. For example, some of these questions could include “Do you find that issues like the government shutdown or family separation crisis have had a positive or negative impact on solidarity within the Latino community?”  or “Have changes in local demographics had an impact on local policies and interests?” These would show not only how populations influence immigrant experiences, but also how reactions to local politics change immigrant welcomeness and reception.