Nate Moore – Immigration Politics, Policymaking in the U.S.

Author: Nate Moore

Pragmatism and Protection: Connecticut’s Fifth District and Immigration in the Era of Trump

May 16, 2019 / Nate Moore / 0 Comments

Pragmatism and Protection

How Connecticut Democrats can support immigrants in the Trump-Era.

Summary:

As cases pile up and contention grows, national immigration reform becomes more and more unlikely. Connecticut has the privilege of being a national leader in protecting immigrants. Of course, however, much can still be done. Pragmatic policies that focus on on education and voting are vital. Many do not require the signature of the President, perhaps the largest obstacle to pro-immigrant reform today. They provide protection to undocumented immigrants and greater political, economic, and academic opportunity. I do not mean to suggest any acceptance of the vitriolic speech and anti-immigrant attitudes of the current administration. These should be fought at every turn. But if Connecticut Democrats want to pass pro-immigrant laws while Republicans control the White House, pragmatic policies and statewide legislation are the best course of action.

Full Op-ed:

The American immigration system is broken. Courts have hundreds of thousands of pending immigration cases, each of which takes almost two years to resolve. Families wait in limbo, wondering if they will be detained and deported. Nativist and xenophobic rhetoric runs rampant on Capitol Hill and in the White House. The resulting policies harm all Americans.

There is no easy fix. Our increasingly polarized political landscape— at nearly all levels of government— makes comprehensive immigration reform ever more elusive. President after president, Congress after Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike, have tried and failed to pass immigration reform. President Obama’s sole immigration related accomplishment, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), came via constitutionally questionable executive order. Today, unity around such a divisive issue seems near impossible. Bold, idealistic policies have their merits, but are useless if dead on arrival. Rep. Jahana Hayes, and all Connecticut representatives, must focus on pragmatic, locally oriented solutions if progress is to be made.

A strong, inclusive education system is an essential foundation to immigrant success and integration. According to the American Immigration Council, nearly 20% of Connecticut immigrants have less than a high school diploma. Only 7.6% of natives fall into the same category. This disparity is alarming and impacts the lives of all immigrants. Ms. Hayes should focus on narrowing this gap. Connecticut has already passed several laws that protect undocumented immigrant students, including offering them in state tuition rates. It is also imperative that younger undocumented immigrant students can attend school without fear they may be rounded up by ICE. Strengthening student privacy laws is a good place to start. Undocumented immigrants should be able to provide requisite information to their schools and other services without fear of federal retribution. Ms. Hayes, a former national teacher of the year, should recognize the critical role a strong education system plays in immigrant integration. Schools and students aside, Democrats should push for more cities– and perhaps the entire state– to become a sanctuary for immigrants. Proposed in 2017, the bill was never signed into law. Ms. Hayes, a new force in Connecticut and national politics, should use her recognition and political clout to advocate for this bill. This is a sensible first step to eventually providing citizenship to undocumented immigrants.

In 2016, Senator Chris Murphy started the Latino Leadership Academy, which provides young Latinos, many of whom are immigrants, political mentoring and connections with people in power. This program began to remedy the dramatic lack of latino and immigrant representation in Connecticut’s government. It is critical that Ms. Hayes uses her political power to advocate for these students and their continued success. Expanding this program would open up more opportunities for immigrant children across the state. The National Conference of State Legislators reports only 7% of Connecticut’s state assembly is Hispanic and no members are Latino. Minorities and immigrants are more likely to vote, and become politically involved, when they their elected officials are also minorities or immigrants (Baldinucci et al, 2004). Increasing the number of immigrant representatives is imperative to dispelling negative stereotypes of immigrants propagated by this president. Ms. Hayes and her freshman colleagues, members of the most diverse congress ever, are indispensable advocates for the importance of minority and immigrant representation.

Hispanics and Latinos are the largest growing population group in the United States and Connecticut. With this growing population, comes more voting power and political sway. Connecticut Democrats have grown complacent expecting large margins of victory among immigrant voters. Once a potent force for immigrant enfranchisement, political parties have largely left the task up to nonprofits (Andersen, 2008). Strong efforts to register naturalized immigrants of all nationalities must be a top priority for Connecticut Democrats at home and nationwide. Our democracy benefits from participation. And ultimately, voting is the best way to counter anti-immigrant policies and rhetoric.

Despite the aforementioned flaws, Connecticut has been one of the most progressive states on immigration legislation. New Haven’s municipal ID program was the first of its kind in the United States and has proven invaluable for the civic integration of undocumented immigrants (de Graauw, 2014). Six years later, in 2013, a bill was passed allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses, increasing mobility and safety for some of the states most vulnerable residents. On May 15 of this year, the state senate strengthened the 2013 TRUST Act and reduced cooperation with ICE even further. These laws protecting immigrants are undoubtedly in conflict with the policies of the Trump administration. Nationally elected Connecticut Democrats must work hard to protect these laws from federal interference. This preservation is far more practical than chasing the ultra-progressive policies many national Democrats champion, especially while President Trump is in office.

As cases pile up and contention grows, national immigration reform becomes more and more unlikely. Connecticut has the privilege of being a national leader in protecting immigrants. Of course, however, much can still be done. The pragmatic policies I have outlined above center on education and voting. Many do not require the signature of the President, perhaps the largest obstacle to pro-immigrant reform today. They provide protection to undocumented immigrants and greater political, economic, and academic opportunity. I do not mean to suggest any acceptance of the vitriolic speech and anti-immigrant attitudes of the current administration. These should be fought at every turn. But if Democrats want to pass pro-immigrant laws while Republicans control the White House, pragmatic policies and statewide legislation are the best course of action.

CT-5 Population Demographics

April 15, 2019 / Nate Moore / 0 Comments

Connecticut’s Fifth Congressional District (CT-5), like the United States as a whole, has quickly become more diverse in the last decade. American Community Survey (ACS) estimates that the white share of the population dropped almost 10 percentage points between 2007 and 2017. Meanwhile, minority populations grew across all racial and ethnic demographics, especially the Hispanic/Latino population which increased 6.5 percentage points during the aforementioned decade. As a result, Connecticut has the 11th highest Hispanic population in the United States. Puerto Ricans represent over 50% of this Hispanic population and roughly 8% of the states entire population, the highest percentage in the country. Correlated to the racial and ethnic diversification, CT-5’s foreign born and non U.S. citizen populations have also rapidly grown in the past decade. A plurality of these populations are Hispanic. Increasing minority populations make CT-5 a very interesting case study for the impact of local demographic changes on immigration attitudes.

There is an abundance of research that explores the impact of local demographics on immigrant political experience, news coverage of immigration, public opinion of immigrants. While party organizations once were conducive to immigrant political incorporation, a strong local party organization, even Democratic, has the opposite effect today (Aptekar 2008; Andersen 2008). Immigrant and minority representation lags far behind native and white representation, despite growing populations of minorities across the country. In Aptekar’s study of Edison, New Jersey, the Democratic party often served as an impediment to immigrant political success. Immigrants are also hindered by consistently negative coverage in the news media, which in turn, through agenda setting and framing, can sour public opinion of immigrants and immigration. Abrajano and Hajnal find that 48.9% of immigration related articles published in the New York Times use a negative tone. Only 12.1% assume a positive tone. These suggest that immigration is indeed being framed in a negative light. Furthermore, they find coverage focuses primarily on Latino immigrants and the portion of immigrants who are undocumented. Branton and Dunaway argue the closer a news outlet is to the border, the more the publication will focus on the negative aspects of immigration. Public opinion of immigrants is shaped not only by the media, but also by changes in local demographics. Enos’ research argues white Americans who have increased contact with outgroups (in his experiment, spanish speaking confederates) will adopt stronger anti-immigrant attitudes. However, these effects wear off after a relatively short period of time.

The 2018 congressional election in CT-5 featured an unlikely pair of candidates. Manny Santos, the Republican candidate, is an immigrant from Portugal. Jahana Hayes, a Democrat and the eventual winner, is an African American woman and became the first black person to represent a Connecticut congressional district. Unfortunately, however, these candidates are the exception to minority representation and political success. I predict a strong Democratic party in the District no longer prioritizes immigrant political incorporation. Even with growing minority populations, few minorities will ultimately achieve political success. Even Ms. Hayes, the 2016 national teacher of the year, was not the party backed candidate during the primary. The Hispanic share of the population in CT-5 has risen 6.5 percentage points over the last ten years. The foreign born population has risen more than 20%. With these changes comes more intergroup contact. Existing research would predict these demographic changes, combined with politicized immigration rhetoric, will result in negative local opinions of immigrants and immigration. These negative attitudes will be reflected in local news coverage of immigration. Some research, however, would predict that CT-5’s distance from the southern border will diminish the amount of negative coverage.

I will test my media prediction through a content analysis of two local Connecticut newspapers. I chose The Hartford Courant and The Republican-American Newspaper, which have the two largest circulations of any local paper in Connecticut. In turn, it is likely that these papers have the largest agenda setting effect on the state’s population. The Republican-American focuses on local news more so than The Courant and serves the larger Waterbury area as well as Litchfield County, the rural portion of CT-5. I will gather all articles related to immigration, including opinion pieces, published during the government shutdown, which ran from December 22, 2018 through January 22, 2019. The search terms I intend to use are “immigrant”, “immigration”, “illegal immigration”, “border wall”, and “government shutdown”. The volume of immigration articles will impact whether I can make statistically significant predictions. In my content analysis of these publications, I intend to follow a coding procedure similar to Abrajano and Hajnal and categorize stories across three aspects of framing. The first test will be for tone– positive, neutral, or negative. I predict that immigration will be framed in a negative light. The second test will code for the immigrant group discussed– Latino, European, Asian etc. I predict a large portion of articles will focus on Latino and Hispanic immigration. The final coding test will be article content. Categories include immigration policy, economic impact of immigration, and crime associated with immigration. I predict coverage across all issues, but an emphasis on the negative, anti-immigrant, side of each. I recognize a hand-coding process can be subjective, but I hope to find tools to remove any potential subjectivity. Abrajano and Hajnal utilize an automated text analysis package called RText Tools.

Majority-minority Demographic Forecast Fuels Anxiety

April 3, 2019 / Nate Moore / 0 Comments

The news media often discusses the impending arrival of a majority-minority United States. The Census Bureau predicts that non-Hispanic whites will make up less than 50% of the United States population by 2044. Yet these organizations and news outlets define “whiteness” in a very narrow context, which can fuel the threat narrative and, in turn, white backlash. A study by Dowell Myers and Morris Levy, researchers at USC, explores the partisan perceptions of this media coverage. Their research directly relates to the Abrajano and Hajnal reading we have been discussing in lecture the last two weeks. They argue the most publicized versions of demographic data exclude large numbers of people that may identify as white. In fact, the same data that projected a majority-minority U.S. also reports that in 2060, the country will still be greater than 68% white. But a larger portion of these people will be of mixed race or hispanic descent. Myers and Levy presented exclusive and inclusive demographic forecasts to different groups of white people. They found higher levels of “anxiety or anger” in whites who had read the exclusive report– which discussed declining white population dominance– than in the more inclusive data analysis. These results were especially strong among Republicans, again reinforcing the importance of partisanship when discussing immigration and race. While this study does not explain fully the origins of the threat narrative, it successfully argues media coverage can have a statistically significant impact on white perceptions of immigrants.

Study:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002716218766294

Vox summary and analysis:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/2/17305402/majority-minority-demographic-forecast

Discussion Questions:

Why would media usually report the most exclusive demographic numbers, thereby fueling a threat narrative?

How large of a role would this fear actually have in determining attitudes towards immigrants?

Is the partisan divide in Myer’s and Levy’s find consistent with our other readings this semester?

CT-5: Nate Moore

March 7, 2019 / Nate Moore / 0 Comments

Slide 1

Connecticut’s fifth district includes northern and western portions of the state and houses both rural and urban voters. The district has been in Democratic hands for the past decade, and had been represented by three different people in that timespan. Despite this decade of Democratic control, prior to 2008 the seat was controlled by a Republican. Margins of congressional victory were often in the single digits and Hillary Clinton won the district by only four points. Chris Murphy, the congressman between 2008-2012, retired in order to run for an open senate seat. Elizabeth Etsy, who replaced Murphy and was in office for six years, did not run for reelection because of claims she covered up sexual harassment. The 2018 election featured Republican Manny Santos, an immigrant himself, and Democrat Jahana Hayes. Riding the 2018 blue wave, Hayes, the 2016 national teacher of the year, won the seat in 2018 and became the first African American congresswoman from Connecticut.

Slide 2

In the past decade, the United States congress has become increasingly polarized. Few true moderates remain. Immigration, described by Tichenor as a cross cutting cleavage, used to split both the Republican and Democratic parties. Yet today partisanship is the strongest indicator of how a member of congress will vote on an immigration bill. Republicans are far more likely to support restrictionist legislation then Democrats (Wong 2014; Casillas and Leal 2013). Non-white Democratic members are more likely support pro-immigrant policies, but the results do not extend to their minority Republican colleagues (Wong 2014). Additionally, counties with large population sizes are more likely to cooperate with ICE and request federal assistance under the 287(g) program (Wong 2012). Furthermore, Ramakrishnan and Wong found in their 2010 paper that districts containing large agricultural sectors are less likely to support restrictionist immigration policies (Wong 2014). The other demographic factors explored yielded conflicting or lack of statistical significance. These factors included minority wage competition and Asian population size.

Slide 3

Based upon the existing literature, several things can be reasonably predicted about Connecticut’s fifth district. Foremost, because Rep. Hayes is a Democrat, it is likely she will vote against any restrictionist bills that appear on the House floor. Furthermore, Rep. Hayes is African-American so, yet again, she is more likely to oppose restrictionist legislation. Connecticut 5 is almost three quarters white, however, so it is also possible this effect will be diminished. The average population size of a congressional district is roughly 710,000 people; Connecticut’s fifth contains about 715,000 people according to census data. Thus, representatives are not more likely to cooperate with ICE and participate in the 287(g) program. Finally, agriculture is a vital part of the economy in CT-5, especially in the rural northwestern part of the state. As a result, Rep. Hayes is more likely to support pro-immigrant policies.

Slide 4

Immigration is not an especially important issue for Rep. Hayes and her voting record and social media presence is reflective of such. Since taking office in early January of this year, Hayes has co-sponsored 49 bills, one of which related to immigration– a condemnation of the national emergency declaration by President Trump. She has yet to sponsor her own bill. During the government shutdown, Hayes voted each time with House Democrats to re-open portions of the federal government. She has taken a strong stance against President Trump’s immigration policies, especially the border wall. Her campaign website features a lengthy immigration section that outlines her support for DACA and a path to citizenship. However, immigration is not included as an issue on her new official congressional website. Rather than focus on immigration, Hayes, a former teacher, has focused the majority of her efforts on education and gun control bills. Twitter content, both before and after the election, only confirms the above analysis. Only three tweets related to immigration from January 1 , 2018- November 6, 2018, suggesting that even during the campaign Hayes was not very concerned with immigration. This seems odd because the Republican whom she was running against was an immigrant himself. After being sworn in, a mere of 2.9% (8 of 272) of her tweets have been related to immigration. Almost all of these attacked President Trump and his border wall during the January government shutdown.