Author: Jake Brzowsky

Responding to Trump: Can Immigrant Identity Prevent Subgroup Fragmentation?

Summary:

This op-ed focuses on how Representative Adriano Espaillat can best represent his Northern Manhattan congressional district on issues of immigration, in particular in light of recent hostility from the Trump administration. It centers on the remarkable ethnic diversity within the district that has in the past contributed more to source of competition than a shared identity as immigrants. But while New York City politics may be predisposed toward ethnic competition, the city also has a long history of immigrants working to help other immigrants. I suggest that local politicians and organizing leaders must work together to bridge these differences and build coalitions over common agendas. Though this will undoubtedly require sustained outreach across communities, only by working together and promoting the integration of currently marginalized groups will we achieve progress on creating more welcoming and inclusive communities.

 

Responding to Trump: Can Immigrant Identity Prevent Subgroup Fragmentation?

President Donald Trump’s latest thoughts on immigration proposal, set to be unveiled today, threatens to upend the norms that have guided this country’s immigration system has functioned over the past decades. Should the proposals eventually become law, they will sharply curtail the ways in which people of other nations seek better lives in the United States. This will in particular affect the millions of immigrants in cities like New York, who live in ethnic enclaves where family connections are the main pathway to residence and ultimately citizenship.

Let’s look at one such example: New York’s Thirteenth Congressional District, composed primarily by Upper Manhattan, is more than a third foreign born, while close to sixty percent of the district’s residents speak a language other than English at home, according to the most recent Census estimates. For many there, immigration issues are a top priority. In the time I spent in the district, I learned that a deep sense of fear pervades the district. Not only does the undocumented population live with the constant dread of deportation, but legal residents as well worry about their futures under the current administration.

To what degree are they supported by local politicians? It depends who you ask. While more well-connected immigrant communities enjoy the full-throated support of local politicians, others, such as the Mexican immigrants of East Harlem, are not so lucky. These communities suffer from regular mistreatment and “broken promises” as a result of their lack of representation, according to Melina Gonzalez, immigration outreach organizer at LSA Family Health Service, a local nonprofit organization. At the same time other national groups, such as West Africans, feel disconnected entirely from the political system, according to François Nzi, the founder of a tutoring and coaching service for immigrant youth, and himself originally from the Ivory Coast. Despite the fact that the current representative in the U.S. House was a formerly undocumented Dominican, many still feel unembraced by the political elite. And while individual communities inhabit adjacent, or even shared spaces, there is little sense district-wide of banding together as a unified immigrant voice.

Part of that is just New York City politics, and its history of ethic competition. On a surface level, given the long tradition of identity politics in New York City, it would be only natural to claim to speak for one’s own ethnic group. But on a more structural level, however, historians such as Nancy Foner, a professor of sociology at CUNY, have long maintained that “In New York, ethnic competition is a fact of life.” Foner, quoting the UCLA professor Roger Waldinger, argues that the “politics in the city ‘presents newcomers with a segmented political system, organized for mobilization along ethnic group lines, and a political culture that sanctions, indeed encourages, newcomers to engage in ethnic politics.’” Cooperation and joint action, then, are the exception rather than the norm, a reality that may be harming the immigrant cause overall.

The solution to that problem, however, is clear. In order for local political leaders to better serve their constituents on the issue of immigration, they must work toward creating cross-cutting ethnic coalitions to support an immigration-focused agenda. In doing so, they have much to draw on: New York City has a long history of managing its unique diversity. As Mary Waters & Philip Kasinitz summarize in a recent essay: “if New York seems perennially beset by small ethnic struggles, its diversity of groups, its complex quilt of overlapping interests and alliances, and the broad acceptance of the idea that ethnic succession, if not always pleasant, is both legitimate and inevitable have generally prevented city-engulfing racial or ethnic conflagrations.” Successful outcomes, they argue, are a result of cooperation that happens when different groups can realize that they’re on the same team.

This too, has been an approach previously effective in New York. A comparative study of several U.S. and European cities credits the successful outcomes on measures of immigrant integration to be due, in part, to the dense presence of immigrant-oriented organizations that “have been able to find common ground and articulate common agendas focused on issues affecting many disadvantaged immigrants … Organisations actively engage in coalition building to pool their staff skills, membership bases, and other organisational resources.” That paper links the increasing influence of immigrants in local New York politics to their ability to identify and mobilize over shared group interests.

Only time will tell how much of an impact Trump’s latest proposals will have on immigrant interests in New York and around the country. But those who wish to fight back must focus on fostering collaboration and unity among the various ethnic identities jostling for influence. The actual implementation of this goal will require a combination of bottom-up and top-down measures: local organizers should continue to focus on increasing measures of civic engagement, but elected officials must at the same time make a coordinated effort to incorporate marginalized communities into political processes. Representative Espaillat is smart to draw on his Dominican heritage to underpin his support for immigrants, but he must at the same time be wary of relying only on his personal narrative to the exclusion of the full diversity of his district.

NY-13 District Research

Slide 1: Research Design

This research sets out to examine the effects of demographic change in New York’s Thirteenth Congressional District, with specific attention to how these changes have affected immigrant experiences of social and political integration, and whether they have been met with resistance from the district’s native population. To that end, we ask our subjects about the population makeup of their neighborhood and how it has changed in recent years, and for interviewees to identify markers of political and social integration among the local immigrant population. We hypothesize that (1) immigrants are present in large enough numbers to be well integrated, and (2) that the rate of change is not significant enough to provoke backlash.

 

Slide 2: Interview Participants

We reached out to fourteen organizations, selected from a list of immigrant advocacy stakeholders that comprise the New York Immigration Coalition. Of the five that responded, we interviewed three organizations chosen to represent the geographic and ethnic diversity of our district. Despite it being the smallest in the country, we found that the different neighborhoods and sub-populations within the district have sharply different experiences and difficulties, as we will report in the following slides.

 

Slide 3: Results (Part 1)

This slide challenges the predictions of our second hypothesis, on the link between demographic change and native backlash. Despite the fact that district-wide no racial group underwent strong relative changes in ethnic populations, this did not account for other, more neighborhood-level effects, such as gentrification. In all three interviews, we heard about the challenges that gentrification brings to immigrants, but in none were the feelings as strong as those in East Harlem. There, immigrants are resented by native residents as they are perceived to be more resilient to the effects of rising housing prices due to their willingness to share small apartments among multiple families.

To a lesser extent, this sentiment is present in Central Harlem as well, where we were told about resentment toward newcomers from native residents who have been increasingly pushed out of their longtime homes. Although this resentment has not manifested itself physically in any of the neighborhoods studied, it is important to recognize that backlash is produced not merely by demographics alone, but rather in the context of underlying socioeconomic trends at the neighborhood level.

 

Slide 4: Results (Part 2)

This slide addresses our first hypothesis, with regards to political integration. Although our research neither confirms nor disproves the prediction, it adds to it a measure of complexity. Political representation is something that weighs heavily on the minds of all those who we interviewed. But despite immigrants making up large percentages of the population in all three areas, some groups are systematically more integrated than others.

Dominican immigrants are well incorporated into the political system and enjoy “full-throated support” from local politicians (including the co-ethnic Rep. Espaillat) according to Marc Valinoti, managing immigration attorney at the Northern Manhattan Immigration Corporation. Mexicans and Central Americans, meanwhile, suffer the abuses and “broken promises” of a lack of representation according to Melina Gonzalez, immigration outreach organizer at LSA Family Health Service. Both she and François Nzi, founder of the New York Math Academy tutoring program for immigrant youth, believe that the only way things will change is with increased engagement with the political system. His hope is that educating youth will “bring the parents along” as well.

For these reasons of inter-neighborhood heterogeneity, we are hesitant to speak of the effect of demographics on political integration, as different groups seem to enter into the system at different rates. Nevertheless, we find that a key goal for immigrant advocacy organizations remains increasing voter registration and turnout in the hope of achieving entry into the political sphere, giving modest support to our hypothesis about the positive effects of increased immigrant numbers on political integration.

NY-13: District Demographics

Slide 1: Population Demographics

This slide provides an overview of the unique demographics of New York’s Thirteenth Congressional District and the changes that have taken place over the past decade. We use 2017 estimates as the most recently available ACS data; to demonstrate demographic change we show percentage point differences from 2012 and 2007. It is important to note, however, that the 2007 comparison is drawn from the then-Fifteenth District. Before redistricting, over 80 percent of the current area of the 13th district was part of the 15th, however we recognize that these comparisons are not exact and that some margin of error must be taken into account.

Despite this, there are several inferences we can make. The first is that over the past decade, both white and black elements of the population have been replaced by new racial groups, including Asians, those of mixed race, and those not identifying with any of the above. At the same time, the district, already one of the most Hispanic in the nation, has become steadily more so. These effects, however, have either slowed in the last five years or are attributable to the 2011 redistricting. More confidently, we can observe a slow replacement of the native population with those of foreign origin, and a foreign population that is politically integrated, as evidenced by the fact that the foreign-born naturalized percentage is growing at nearly the same rate that the native population is shrinking. Taken together, these facts show a district undergoing demographic change, though some effects are stronger than other. We will analyze the implications of these demographics in the following slides.

Slide 2: Selected Scholarship

The effects of immigrant populations on various societal outcomes has been hotly debated in past scholarship. Research by de Graauw and Vermeulen (2016) has demonstrated that the proportion of immigrants among the electorate and their relative population levels are significant predictors of their social and political integration at the local level. Along the same lines, we can predict from research by Branton and Dunaway (2009) as well as Abrajano and Singh (2009) that media coverage will become more favorable to immigrants as their levels rise, as it increasingly considers their interests due to their rising consumer power.

In the battleground of public opinion, there are those who argue that increased levels of immigrants will provoke a sense of “racial threat” and aggravate negative feelings toward immigrants and immigration (Abrajano and Hajnal 2015). On the other hand, many have observed opposite or no effects, leading some to conclude that there is more at play. According to one such theory, Hopkins (2010) argues that it is only the interaction of sudden change with national immigration salience that sparks backlash. The relevance of these theories to our district will be addressed in the next slide.

Slide 3: Predicted Effects

Given the demographic makeup of our district, we suggest three predictions about the effects of recent developments. We expect that the population changes caused by the immigrant growth rate, while perhaps of relevance to local leaders, are not sudden or significant enough to meet the threshold described by Hopkins and others to trigger local opposition or backlash. Second, we predict that immigrants will continue to integrate themselves into society, following the example of the large numbers presently doing so in the local context. Third, although already significant enough within the district to merit favorable media coverage, we expect that as the immigrant demographic continues to grow, the media will continue to see them as an important economic constituency, thus supporting further coverage of their interests.

Slide 4: Research Proposal

To further the research the effects of district population demographics and their changes, we propose a research project consisting of qualitative interviews with local political figures and non-profit immigrant advocacy organizations. We aim to examine if changing demographics have led to backlash toward immigrants, placing the results of our research in conversation with theories of racial threat as well as the contact hypothesis. To this end, we will ask questions seeking evidence of ethnic tension and racial resentment within the district. This will hopefully allow us to determine the impact of demographic change and the accuracy of our prediction that the local experience will be better for immigrants today than ten years ago.

NY-13

District NY-13 (Adriano Espaillat): Initial Research

New York’s Thirteenth Congressional District has for decades been one of the most stable and solidly Democratic seats in the country. Though referred to by different numbers over the years, the district, comprised primarily of Manhattan’s Harlem neighborhood, has been represented by only three individuals since 1945: Adam Clayton Powell Jr., Charlie Rangel, and now Adriano Espaillat. (I consider NY-15 to be the immediate predecessor of NY-13 prior to the 2011 redistricting, as 80% of the new 13th district was previously in the area of the 15th.) Espaillat was elected following Rangel’s retirement from Congress in 2016 and cemented his hold on the district in the 2018 elections with nearly 95% of the vote. The strong Democratic character of the district and its remarkable stability will prove relevant in our analysis.

Recent scholarship has repeatedly examined the district-level characteristics that may predict a member of Congress’s votes on immigration. I focus here on two articles that prove especially relevant regarding our district, that of Tom Wong (2014) as well as Jason Casellas and David Leal (2013). From regression analysis of past votes, both show partisanship and district Hispanic population to be among of the most consistently associated variables with immigration legislation. Both agree that partisanship (i.e. the partisanship of the representative, but to a lesser extent the partisanship of the district as well) is the primary factor underlying the MC’s voting record. However, both similarly note an influence of the district Latino population in which greater numbers associate with support for more permissive policies toward immigrants. Given the presence of both partisanship and significant Latino population in our district, we expect both of these articles to be relevant to our analysis as well.

If partisanship is the biggest predictor of immigration policymaking, it would be no surprise that Espaillat would support permissive immigration legislation. In addition to his own partisan ideology (at the 89th percentile among Democrats alone, according to Govtrack) NY-13 had one of the highest partisan margins in the country in the 2018 election, coming in above the 95th percentile. Furthermore, the district’s Hispanic population is also among the highest in the nation, at approximately 55 percent. This particular pairing of factors amounts to a strong indicator that Espaillat will be a supporter of permissive immigration legislation, if the models of Wong (2014) and Casellas and Leal (2013) hold true. The following slide examines the empirical data to support this premise.

Since his campaign for the House, Espaillat has been outspoken on the topic of immigration. In his campaign platform, he stressed his Dominican heritage in influencing his thoughts on the topic. Today, immigration continues to be a central part of Espaillat’s agenda, as one of nine priorities listed on his House website. There he lists actions that he has taken on the issue of immigration, including seven immigration-related bills that he co-sponsored. These and one other reflect more than twenty percent of the bills that Espaillat has sponsored while in Congress. The congressman’s focus on immigration is shared by his Twitter page, on which approximately 14 percent of his tweets since the start of the year have had some focus on immigration-related matters. Between his actions and his rhetoric, it is clear that the issue of immigration will continue to occupy an important place within Espaillat’s agenda, alongside his concerns for his home district.

Should the Social Safety Net Be Extended to Unauthorized Immigrants?

Many scholars have noted the increasing shift of immigration policymaking to subnational actors at the state and local level. This research however, has mainly focused on the cooperation of states with the federal government, whether in enacting restrictionist legislation that has stagnated in Congress (Jones-Correa and de Graauw 2013) or in stepping up enforcement by means of the Section 287(g) of the IIRIRA legislation or the subsequent SAFE Act (Wong 2014).  Less focus has been given, however, to the states and municipalities that have resisted the efforts of the federal government in pursuing more permissive policies. Nevertheless, this phenomenon has received much media attention, especially since the election of President Donald Trump along with his administration’s increased efforts at interior enforcement.

This article examines two places that have made efforts to expand the legal benefits and social services available to undocumented immigrants, namely New York City and California. The article questions whether these new policies, that will inevitably cost taxpayer dollars, may actually lead to a backlash among swing voters and spur a new shift toward restrictionism. Salam argues that moderates who were on board with benevolent or even progressive immigration policies may change their minds when they start paying the price to subsidize indolence within the immigrant population. While far from a sure thing, it is worth considering this dimension of immigration politics, in which progressive local governments must carefully walk the line of supporting hardworking and virtuous immigrants without alienating their equally hardworking and deserving native-born constituents.

 

Discussion Questions:

What responsibility to states and municipalities have toward their unauthorized immigrant populations? How should elected officials balance good intentions with their need to maintain electoral coalitions?

 

Article Citation:

Salam, Reihan. “Bill de Blasio and Gavin Newsom May Give Restrictionism New Life.” The Atlantic, January 14, 2019. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/de-blasio-and-newsoms-health-care-immigrants-pledge-may-backfire/580252/.

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