The clock reads 4:18 A.M. when Tareq Alaows and his friends feel their world tilt.
The industrial gleam of three laptops illuminated the darkness of Alaows’ Berlin living room, spitting a flurry of words from the plethora of German news channels. Overlapping audio streams made individual speakers incomprehensible to the unattentive ear. But that December night, the attention of Alaows and his four friends — Syrian, Iranian, German — had been anything but sparing. While they were collectively sleep-deprived from the past few days of the grueling ritual, not a single person wanted to miss the moment that Bashar al-Assad’s reign of terror would crumble to the ground.
“I saw it, and at first, I didn’t believe it. I was too tired to do anything, so I slept for an hour right away.” Alaows said. “[Afterwards,] I immediately … started making social media statements. I knew right away [that] as a political voice here in Germany and … an opponent of the Assad regime, there would be a lot of media inquiries coming my way.”
Alaows, a Syrian refugee who arrived in Germany in 2015 after fleeing conscription in Syria, was under unique circumstances. He was the first Syrian refugee to run for German Parliament, representing the left-leaning environmentalist Green Party in 2021. After withdrawing his candidacy due to racist threats, his work since then has focused on advising asylum seekers and supporting refugees for ProAsyl, Germany’s largest pro-immigration advocacy organization.
Alaows was euphoric at Assad’s fall, but his joy fizzled out as quickly as it ensued. A mere few hours after the announcement, Jens Spahn, a German politician and Bundestag (parliament) member of the major center-right Chrsitian Democratic Union (CDU) party, suggested that the German government hand Syrian nationals in Germany 1,000 euros to repatriate them to their Assad-free homeland.
“[He] shamelessly suggested in the media [that] we give every [asylum] seeker 1,000 euros,” Alaows said.
“I thought, hey, an entire population is trying to understand what happened in the country, and the only thing Jens Spahn is interested in is that people can go straight back.”
***
Just 10 years ago, stringent opposition to progressive immigration and asylum reform in Germany was considered a part of a minor stream of far-right politics. Today, it is minor no longer.
The AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland), Germany’s populist far-right party that openly embraces mass deportation policies and anti-Islam views, is the second most powerful party in the German Bundestag. They are regarded positively by nearly 20% of the German population, up from 13% in 2016. The AfD became the first far-right party since 1945 to win a German state election.
The rightward cultural shift has generated a profound impact not only on the AfD but also on their more moderate counterparts. The CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) — the center-right political powerhouse that traditionally has held majority seats in the Bundestag— is changing under the face of a metastasizing anti-immigrant culture, with nearly 37% of German voters in January’s Bundestag elections considering ‘migration’ to be one of the two most important ‘political problems’ that lawmakers need to address. Just 10 years ago, Germany’s CDU-led government allowed large numbers of asylum seekers into the country, fueled by progressive political and public sentiment on migration issues. Now, they’ve taken a sharp right turn, its highest-ranking members espousing support to limit migration.
After a visit to Damascus, Syria, earlier this month, Germany’s Foreign Minister and CDU member Johann Wadephul said in a statement to German news network Deutsche Welle that “hardly anyone can live here [in Syria] with dignity.” Wadephul allegedly made a remark that said today’s “Syria looked worse than postwar Germany” during a meeting in parliament, irking other party colleagues. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, also a member of the CDU whose pointed remarks appeared to address Wadepuhl indirectly, said that “there is no longer any reason for [Syrian] asylum in Germany, and therefore, [Germany] can begin repatriations.”
For now, voluntary repatriation and deportations of Syrians with criminal records remain at the forefront of the CDU’s repatriation advocacy. But only 0.1% of Germany’s Syrians have voluntarily returned to their homeland a year after Assad’s fall, and the pressure of Germany’s climbing anti-immigrant cultural sentiment remains, even as the number of asylum applications is falling. Those who have already naturalized know that they are lucky. But to the hundreds of thousands of Syrians under more precarious circumstances — such as those with temporary residence permits or a subsidiary protection status — small political shifts can feel potentially life-altering.
***
Since Assad’s fall, a wave of anxiety has ensued amongst many yet-to-be naturalized Syrians or Syrians under more temporary immigration statuses. In 2024, nearly 300,000 people were granted naturalized German citizenship, a record for the nation. Many of them — over 80,000 — were Syrians.
In 2015, the general path to German naturalization for Syrian refugees required eight years of legal residence, an intermediate level of fluency in German, and the completion and passing of an integration course. A large number of Syrian refugees who arrived during former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s border openings in 2015-2016 became eligible for naturalization in 2024, approximately 8-9 years after their arrival — and for most, after they had successfully integrated.
“[Syrians] have high intentions to integrate and stay … there are studies comparing return intentions before and after the fall [of Assad], and they find that the share of people who want to go back slightly increased, but a large and overwhelming majority wants to stay for the foreseeable future in Germany,” said Jonas Wiedner, a German sociologist who studies social stratification and integration issues faced by immigrants. “Germany has invested billions of euros in integrating, training, and schooling people from Syria.”
German politicians remain divided on the topic of repatriation. And Syrians, many of whom have lived in Germany for years but have yet to receive their citizenship, remain in judicial limbo. Many are fearful that rightward cultural shifts will translate to policy ones. In many ways, those shifts have already been realized.
Wiedner noted that while there is some credence to the claim that Germany’s rightward, anti-immigrant shift is a part of a broader shift observable in many Western countries today, Germany stands in a particularly unique historical position. Their open-border policy and relationship to a large number of Syrian refugees specifically have played significantly “into the hands of the far right.”
“The … welcoming culture is no longer the dominant force in German political opinion,” he said. “There’s a large majority of people who want to see migration limited, and also want to see foreigners, particularly refugees, reduced in Germany.”
Kristin Brinker, the Chair of the Berlin division of the AfD and member of the Berlin House of Representatives, agrees that ‘welcoming culture’ no longer exists. But she doesn’t see this as a problem.
“If the war in a country has stopped, then the migrants have to go back,” said Kristin Brinker, the Chair of the Berlin division of the AfD and member of the Berlin House of Representatives. Tidily dressed and groomed, she gave a concerned frown at the end of each sentence, occasionally slipping German conjunctions in place of English ones.
Brinker — who self-identifies with a more moderate wing of the AfD — sounded little like her impassioned colleagues, some of whom emblazon ‘Make Europe Great Again’ slogans and orate passionately in social media-viral speeches. The AfD party’s leader, Alice Wiedel, aroused controversy after declaring that “burqas, headscarf girls, publicly-supported knife men, and other good-for-nothings will not secure our prosperity, economic growth, and the social state.” Brinker’s demeanor was laughably tranquil in comparison.
“There are a lot of Syrians here. They live in our social system. They are young men, and they can work, go home, and rebuild their country,” Brinker said, fixing her hair. “And that’s an important message for us.”
***
I’ve been sitting in an empty Zoom conference for 15 minutes when a pixelated apparition of Stephan Mayer’s round, doughy face emerges from the void. The flickering lights of German apartment buildings flash by in his car window. He mutters a sentence in German — I respond that I can only understand English. “Make it quick,” he says. “I only have a few minutes.”
Mayer, who has been a member of the German Bundestag since 2002, stepped down from his role as Secretary-General of Germany’s CSU party in early 2022 after making death threats to a journalist for reporting on his illegitimate child. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mayer served as the Parliamentary State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of the Interior from 2018 to 2021. Now, he is a ‘Spokesperson for Sports’ of the CDU/CSU party. As part of his former Parliamentary State Secretary position, however, Mayer said that determining the CDU/CSU’s stance on migration policy was one of the key aspects of his job.
“I followed the discussions about migration, and especially illegal migration, very intensively within the last decade,” he said. “I am deeply opposing the theory that there [has been] a shift in [Germany’s] Willkommenskultur [welcoming culture].”
Critical to the argument for Syrian repatriation — a policy Mayer remains a strong proponent of — is the notion that a post-Assad Syria is safe for return. “Fortunately, we now have quite [a] stable government in Syria,” Mayer said. “I just had a briefing with the Federal [Foreign Office], and they are very confident that the al-Sharaa government is stabilizing.” Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, a former rebel commander and member of al-Qaeda, assumed Syrian presidency in January of 2025. The meeting presumably included Johann Wadepuhl, Germany’s Foreign Minister, who opposed Syrian repatriation after making contentious comments about Syria’s safety after the fall of Assad.
But if Syria is truly safe for return as Mayer and some of his CDU colleagues are proposing, there seem to be other strong incentives keeping return rates at bay.
[TK Potential moamadani/al-zoabi interview inclusion on how rents in damascus are similar to rents in major american cities; more data on Syria’s livability]
In the early 1990s, the Yugoslav Wars — a series of ethnic conflicts, wars of independence, and insurgencies in the Balkan region that lasted over 10 years — sparked a major refugee and humanitarian crisis in Europe. Generous estimates put the number of refugees at nearly 1 million. Germany received a large number of refugees — around 700,000. Most, according to Wiedner, were repatriated after three to four years in Germany.
“So there is precedent that large repatriations can work,” he said. “But of course, now the Syrians have been here for more than 10 years. That’s a different story.”
Only now is Germany’s billions of euros in migrant integration investments — integration training, schooling, and education — bearing economic returns. “More and more people are in the labor market [and are] contributing to the social security system. To send people back now, after all of these investments, really seems unwise,” Wiedner added.
[TK on doctors / syrians taking up high skill positions that would be empty otherwise; quote on brinker saying even the doctors should leave so that they can ‘help rebuild’]
***
There’s an implied agency in the word ‘repatriation’. Unlike ‘deportation’, which often involves an involuntary removal and a cited violation of immigration law, ‘repatriation’ does not indicate any kind of legal violation and, in some cases, presupposes a voluntary return. But not all repatriations are voluntary, and not all involuntary repatriations involve a legal violation.
A repatriation, then, can become a practical equivalent to a deportation without legal basis.
Like the word ‘repatriation,’ shifts in Germany’s migration sentiment have been presented in feigned platitudes. Some, like Brinker, cite Germany’s investment in Syria’s reconstruction: their homeland calls for the return of their young and talented. Others like Mayer cite a dubiously defined ‘safety’: of course Germany is a welcoming place for immigrants! But if ‘home’ is a great place to be in, why should they have to be here at all?
To some, the platitudes of German migration politics seem to hide something more sinister: a fundamental misunderstanding of life as a Syrian migrant in Germany. At the very least, that’s how Tareq Alaows saw it in 2021, when he realized he could be the missing voice of authenticity in the German government from a refugee perspective.
“I realized, even as a refugee who came to Germany in 2015, my perspective, my voice, was missing in the political debates about refugees. Not just my individual perspective, but overall,” he said. “The perspective of affected people in politics, and that’s why I decided to run for the Bundestag in 2021, to represent exactly this perspective of the people in the Bundestag during political decision-making.”
Alaows expected backlash. As the first Syrian refugee to ever attempt candidacy for the Bundestag and also as a member of the left-leaning Green Party, he knew that anti-refugee and racist social media posts were something he’d have to endure.
“The hostility [ranged] from people who said that as a Syrian, I could seek protection in Germany, but I shouldn’t run for a political position … [to] people saying that they would look for me and, if they found me, would take me back to Syria to Assad so he could kill me as a political opponent.”
But what he didn’t expect was threats to his family members and a physical altercation that would leave him fearing for his safety. One night on a Berlin subway ride, Alaows was accosted by a man who screamed at his face for nearly a minute straight. His family members also began receiving death threats initially limited to his own inboxes — and that was when he decided to retract his candidacy.
Alaows thinks that this anti-immigrant rhetoric that drove his candidacy to withdrawal, while pronounced after the fall of Assad, was a phenomenon already in the making. “The debate about refugees shifted from being about ‘asylum seekers’ to so-called ‘illegal migrants’ in recent years. And this didn’t just refer to refugees from Syria, but to all refugees coming to Germany,” he said.
It’s unmistakable, Alaows thinks, that this phenomenon was also one adopted by the German moderates. “I noticed that certain statements by AfD politicians in 2015, like ‘we shoot people at the border’ or ‘we must push people back with force at the German borders’, [were limited] within far-right circles,” he said. “But over time, it gradually became more socially acceptable and was even adopted by democratic parties.”
***
When I had asked Stephan Mayer whether he believed that the CDU/CSU’s rightward policy shifts on migration were influenced by an attempt to appeal to conservative voters, he’d scoffed.
“That’s absolutely not true … I just said that we are hosting 1 million Syrian refugees, and now, the civil war has fortunately ended. We [gave them] residence allowances, but only for a certain time, for the time of the Civil War … and now the war has ended. [What] does that have anything in common with regaining conservative votes?” he said.
“It’s a natural development,” he added.
Alaows would agree with him. That is, agree with his final statement: that what’s happening to Syrians in Germany today in a post-Assad world is merely an extension of an alarming development of anti-immigrant sentiment that’s been growing in potency for years.
“Even before the fall of the Assad regime, the narratives have changed,” he said. “There were already efforts to deport people to Syria. [Even] while Assad was still in power.”
[feeling iffy about the ending]