The Migration Policy Institute presented an acute diagnosis of the potential collapse of the European regional order, which was very interesting to me as a student of politics. The concrete policy critique was on the reinstatement of border controls by Germany following public pressure to do something about the refugee crisis. By the refugee crisis, what is meant is the “housing crisis, strained public services, and unprecedented pressure on public finances.” An attack last summer was used as a political munition by far-right anti-immigration parties to flare up public anxiety. The novel border measure, then, is an attempt to display a staunch front to a public that’s increasingly supporting these hardline parties and entrusting them to address the issues of immigration.
The prescient aspect of the MPI analysis is that this “re-borderization” caused by the refugee influx could cascade into more and more extreme proposals by more and more EU countries, especially those in the Schengen area. It explains an important nuance that Germany needs to be actively assisted in this international protection regime, responsibilities need to be evenly distributed across nations, and backlogs and staffing issues must be addressed. As its peers retreat from their duties, Germany stands “alone in its efforts to uphold the international protection regime. This needs to be reversed, or else the entire architecture of the CEAS could collapse, as could the founding principles of the Schengen Area.”
Taking a broader look at what is at stake as the entire region reels from the consequences of the war in Ukraine, it’s not just about the European energy (think Nordstream pipeline) and the European security system (think NATO) that is at risk. The continental, and really international, humanitarian system of asylum faces danger as well. If Germany is left alone and other nations increase in protectionism, collapse is imminent.
Separately, the drone warfare piece was highly concerning. Doubtless, an air or sea drone remotely controlled with GPS, sensors, and cameras is a significant innovation in warfare, but to have artificial intelligence in these systems is even more problematic and dangerous. The buzz in the industry these days is on agentic systems that no longer rely on continuous prompting from a developer/human but can be given a mission and given “agency” to carry it out using their “intelligence”. That chapter of autonomous weapons is being hastened by the deployment of new technologies in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is moving us towards that future.
Significantly, too, on the topic of drones is when non-state actors start to use them, as it presents uncharted territory for law enforcement and border security. Tracking fentanyl smuggling with drones across the US southern border is an example of new threats that must be dealt with. It’s also important to highlight Kyiv’s attempt to woo Trump and curry US favor by making a pitch for its drone technology. And the truth is that America’s military isn’t ready for drone warfare. They aren’t producing enough and “ their ships, tanks, and planes…are now vulnerable to cheap drones.”
