Last week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz delayed his government’s decision on whether to approve a package of EU sanctions on Israel. Merz said earlier this month that he would present his coalition’s joint position at an Oct. 1 summit of EU leaders in Copenhagen. But Merz’s delay makes it unclear when or whether Germany will reach a firm decision.
“The history of German support [for Israel] is so great that going for EU-wide sanctions is against the history of the relationship,” said Daniel Marwecki, a lecturer in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong whose research focuses on German-Israeli relations. “Germany is not going much farther than it already has.”
The sanction package, introduced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in mid-September, would impose tariffs on an estimated £5.8 billion of imported goods from Israel, while also sanctioning two far-right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The Commission also proposed sanctions on 10 Hamas members. To pass, the proposal requires approval by a qualified majority ruling.
One reason for the Merz administration’s stalling may be the agreement reached on Monday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the Israel-Hamas war, according to Marwecki. Though it is yet uncertain whether Hamas will accept all of the conditions in the Trump administration’s 20-point peace plan, many are optimistic that a ceasefire is finally on the horizon.
“For Germany, the ideal outcome would be an acceptance of that plan, and that would allow the government to get out of the current predicament of having to find a tougher, more European stance,” Marwecki explained. In recent months, many other European countries have faltered in their support of Israel, citing human rights violations.
But Germany has taken a hard-line pro-Israel stance since just after World War II. What would it take for that to change?
Germany faces pressure to change its Israel approach
Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Germany has faced increasing internal and external pressure to revise its stalwart stance. Hundreds of thousands of Germans have taken to the streets to protest their government’s military support of Israel.
According to a poll by public broadcaster ZDF, 76 percent of German voters believe that Israel’s military action in the Gaza Strip is unjustified. A YouGov poll released this week showed that 62 percent of German voters believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute genocide.
But public sentiment and foreign policy are often misaligned. Dr. Naama Lutz, an Israeli scholar of migration at the Social Science Center in Berlin, has watched public sentiment shift since the start of the war and seen the pro-Palestinian protest movement bloom. “But it just kind of feels like a drop in the ocean,” she said. “The core of Germany’s foreign policy is pretty unwavering in its support of Israel.”
The country is also facing external pressure, growing isolated among its Western allies, many of whom have recently recognized a Palestinian state. Germany has not taken this step, and has thus far avoided applying the term “genocide” to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
There has been at least one significant policy shift. In August, Germany said it would no longer issue licenses for weapons “clearly usable in Gaza.” According to reporting by Politico, this language suggested that other types of weapons would still move forward, which they recently did — last week, Germany approved a batch of arms exports to Israel again.
Still, Germany’s history is not easily shaken off, nor is its national identity easily disentangled from that of Israel.
Germany’s reason of state
After World War II, Germany needed to regain standing in the eyes of the international community. Supporting Israel as a Jewish state was an obvious way for Germany to symbolically and materially absolve its guilt.
Marwecki explained that Germany’s very “staatsraison” — or, reason for statehood — was formed via the way it used Israeli nationalism to create its own, making Germany the only country whose “staatsraison” is another country’s “staatsraison.”
Lutz noted that even today, the German citizenship test — which she herself took in June — requires applicants to check two boxes: one denouncing antisemitism, and the other accepting the legitimacy of Israeli statehood.
“Everyone has to check this box,” she explained. “This is a very core principle of who [Germany] is. It’s very open and straightforward.”
According to Marwecki, when Germany supported Israel industrially and militarily after World War II, it was born not out of a true moral reckoning, but rather out of a self-serving need for rehabilitation and reintegration into the Western block.
Former German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer hinted at this on German television in 1965, when he said, “We had done the Jews so much injustice, committed such crimes against them, that somehow this had to be expiated or repaired if somehow we were to regain our international standing.”
Thus, Germany’s aid was instrumental both in establishing Israeli statehood and re-establishing its own. The irony is that the formation of Israel led to a massive Palestinian refugee crisis in 1948. According to Marwecki, some say this renders the “Palestinian problem” also a German problem.
Nowadays in Berlin, a common protest sign reads, “Free Palestine from German Guilt.” Activists argue that Germany’s longstanding support of Israel and commitment to preventing future atrocities after the Holocaust should give it even greater reason to support Palestinians in this conflict.
This leaves Germany at a crossroads. “They know what’s happening in Gaza can’t go on, and now they have to wash their hands clean,” Marwecki said.
But with a ceasefire deal on the table and an enduring staatsraison, this may not be an area in which Germany feels it can afford to budge, including on the EU sanctions. “When it comes to anything that sanctions Israel or targets the economy as a whole,” Marwecki said, “I just don’t think Germany will support that.”
