Of the approximately 12.3 million Syrian nationals who fled their homes in search of safety since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, one million have returned to Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s fifty-year regime, reported the U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHCR) last week. The end of the precipitating military conflict – killing over half a million citizens and resulting in an estimated $117.7 billion in infrastructure damage – on December 8, 2024 leaves Syrian refugees around the world with a difficult question: To stay or to return?
Dr. Arzoo Osanloo, former Director of the Middle East Center at the University of Washington and current Princeton University Professor, says, “What would stand between somebody who fled their country and a very insecure situation in other countries would be whether [they] would face violence upon returning…Syria still has a lot of continuous unrest, conflict, and violence. Many, many people were forcibly displaced.”
Former Associate Policy Analyst for the Migration Policy Institute, Samuel Davidoff-Gore, presents more questions that are of consequence to displaced refugees. “It’s about the basics of everyday life. Do I have housing? Do I have economic prospects? Do I have safety? Somewhere to work? Can my kids go to school? Is there potable water? Is there a possibility to see my family? And, most importantly, is this better than my current situation?”
Following the fall of the Assad regime, countries hosting Syrian refugees have initiated processes to incentivize their return. But, for many of the approximately 4.5 million Syrians displaced abroad, the prospect of going home remains daunting. Widespread poverty, the absence of functioning infrastructure systems, and the new Syrian government’s persecution of the Alawite minority make repatriation a complicated decision for displaced families, deepening fears of instability and deterring many from returning. These challenges have placed mounting pressure on international organizations to ensure safety and security for Syrians at home and abroad.
As millions of displaced Syrians consider their return, nations with high refugee populations across the world have taken steps to force Syrian nationals back to Syria. On September 19th, President Donald Trump announced the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Syrian nationals living in the U.S.. Additionally, members of Germany’s AfD party and the Austrian government have been vocal in their support for compensation for Syrian nationals returning to Syria.
Middle Eastern nations with high populations of Syrian refugees, including Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, which together house over three million displaced Syrian nationals, have similarly introduced efforts for the forced return of Syrian nationals. Security forces in Lebanon and Turkey have raided and deported hundreds of Syrian refugees. Further, the lack of legal status for refugees in these nations leaves them in “increasingly untenable limbo.”
Davidoff-Gore warns of a continuation of this pattern following the fall of the Assad regime, “I think that you will certainly see folks on the far right trying to incentivize returns or trying to force deportations.”
According to the International Organization for Migration, 1.8 million Syrians displaced by the conflict have returned to their homes since December 2024. However, challenges for repatriating refugees, whether returning voluntarily or under pressure from their host nation, remain plentiful once they return to Syria.
The Syrian economy has contracted by over 80% since the beginning of the war, with rising unemployment and inflation leading to a poverty rate over 90%. Infrastructure damage has resulted in nearly nonexistent schooling and healthcare systems.
“Syria, in particular, is extremely vulnerable,” Dr. Osanloo says. “Not only do they have the violent conflict that they’re still working through, but, in 2023, they had an earthquake, which also did tremendous infrastructural damage and harmed people.”
Returning refugees have found their homes and communities destroyed or occupied by others, in addition to living alongside the remnants of wartime dangers. The Mines Advisory Group (MAG) found that, between December 2024 and June 2025, over 900 people were killed in Syria by landmines and unexploded ordnance.
Davidoff-Gore is skeptical of the ability of Syria’s transition government, led by the Sunni Islamist party Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to address these issues for repatriating citizens on its own. “They don’t have the resources. They don’t have infrastructure staff. So there’s a lot of work that needs to go into making it so that people feel safe.”
For many, the HTS-led transition government offers no assurance of safety.
Alawite Syrians, an ethnoreligious minority within the country who have historically aligned with the Assad regime, have been subjected to overwhelming violence since the rise of the new regime. Human Rights Watch found that, between March 7 and March 10 of this year, armed groups of citizens, along with government forces, attacked over thirty Alawi-majority areas within Syria, killing at least 1,400 citizens.
Many fear that these instances of state-led violence and instability may prompt more Syrian nationals to leave the country, including Alawites, Christians, and other minorities.
Ezgi Irgil, Associate Research Fellow in the Global Politics and Security Programme at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, writes that any evaluation of the situation “must consider not only developments regarding the government but also the humanitarian situation for all Syrians themselves.”
Davidoff-Gore emphasizes the cost of this violence. “In a society where trust is so paramount, it’s these types of situations where it’s so hard to trust… I wouldn’t say that anyone’s fear is unwarranted.”
Experts predict that a mismanaged or rushed return of Syrian refugees to Syria may exacerbate the poverty and the limited resources in the nation. Refugees International writes that any widespread repatriation of displaced Syrians, “requires an overall improvement of the intertwined political, legal, and socioeconomic dimensions of return.”
Davidoff-Gore agrees. “It would be really overwhelming for people to come back all at once. At the same time, they do need people to restart the labor force. So it’s a balancing act, and that’s an area where policy makers really have the opportunity to help Syria navigate that, should countries choose to do that…. But from what I can tell, the [Syrian] government’s taking the right steps.”
Dr. Feliz Garip, Princeton University Professor of Sociology, instead offers a warning to Syrian refugees returning to the country. “We don’t know that Syria is safe to return to right now. There is existing hostility towards refugees who have left the country…The situation is a lot more complicated than just a change in government.”
