From the dining room of a two-bedroom apartment in East Orange, Marie* listens to a sermon on the radio in Haitian Creole, her native language. She reaches across the checkered tablecloth, grabs her phone, and glances at the screen. It’s 7 p.m. She places the phone back on the table and, with an awkward movement, stands up. It’s time for her to head to her job at a fast-food restaurant where she’s worked as a cook since arriving in the United States in 2021. Despite the challenges of her job, she is content with it as it allows her to support her family back in Haiti. Yet with the election of Donald Trump, she worries that she will soon lose this life she was only just starting to feel comfortable in. “He’s not going to do it,” she tells me when I ask her if she thinks Trump will actually deport Haitians en masse. Something in her voice suggests she is only trying to convince herself, that deep down she knows Trump is serious, and that terrifies her.

Mass deportations were one of Trump’s central promises during his 2024 election campaign. He repeatedly promised to carry out the “largest deportation program” in U.S. history. Now that he’s set to occupy the White House after a landslide election victory in November, migrants are anxiously preparing for what a Trump presidency could mean for them. Specifically, Trump has promised to end programs like humanitarian parole and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haiti, which have allowed thousands of Haitian migrants to enter the United States legally in the past decade. With the backdrop of these promises, Trump’s election has caused anxiety levels to rise within the Haitian community. Many are fleeing cities where they believe they might be more vulnerable to unfair targeting by immigration enforcement. Such is the case Springfield, Ohio, a city that found itself in the Republican Party’s spotlight in the final weeks of the campaign and where Trump has promised to launch his deportation agenda. Many have left for cities like Boston and New Jersey while others have opted for international destinations like Brazil and Canada.

These anxieties were on full display on Nelson’s* family group chat on the day following Trump’s election.

“I really thought Kamala was going to make history today,” read the first message sent on the morning of November 5 by Rose*.

“I never believed that would happen. No chance! I always assumed that Trump would win. How is everyone doing?” says Mike*.

“I want to reassure everyone: Trump does not have the authority to deport anyone. That is a matter for the judiciary. A president can cancel a program, but for someone who is already in the United States, only judges can decide their case. As I said, I supported Trump against the wars in the world and against the LGBTQ folks who wanted to introduce their ideology into the education of kids. No need to panic!” responds Jean*.

Jean is a lawyer educated in Haiti, I am told by Nelson. As suggested by his messages on the group chat, he is a devout Trump supporter. There is a back and forth on the group chat with other people pointing out that Trump is “crazy”, and that he has more authority now since he has both the senate and the Supreme Court on his side. To this, Jean doubles down:

“I understand that he has Congress on his side, which is why he has the power to pass any executive order to cancel the Biden program (that is how the Humanitarian Parole program is called in the Haitian community) … But only a judge can decide if someone who is in the country is not allowed to stay. Try to understand the system and don’t panic! After all, it’s their country. It’s up to us to solve our problems at home.”

This exchange is emblematic of the concerns that are animating the Haitian community in the United States as Trump’s inauguration approaches. There is no doubt that Trump’s administration will be hard on migration. But how exactly? And what does that mean for the Haitian community?

So far, it is widely expected that Trump will sign an executive order ending the Humanitarian Parole program for Haiti. The parole program was launched by the Biden administration to curb the flow of irregular migration to the United States. It was intended to deter migrants from crossing illegally into the United States by providing a legal pathway for eligible individuals. Venezuela was the first country designated for the program in October 2022. Haiti was then designated in January 2023, alongside Cuba and Nicaragua. As of August 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that nearly 530,000 people from the four designated countries “arrived lawfully and were granted parole.” Haitians were the largest nationality in this group, accounting for 210,000 of the arrivals, followed by Venezuelans with 117,000 arrivals.

Back in October, however, the Biden administration announced that it would not extend the program. According to Michael Wilner, the Chief Washington Correspondent at McClatchy, this decision was a strategic one. Wilner believes that, anticipating a potential Trump election win, the Biden administration wanted to give “eligible individuals who fall within these groups… time to look at alternative paths to legal status.”

Now that Trump has been elected, the end of the humanitarian parole program is imminent.

“100%, humanitarian is gonna go!”, said Remy, a beneficiary of the parole program who arrived in the United States at the end of last year with his family. “However, TPS is another thing,” he adds.

While the fate of parole is all but certain, the future of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) is harder to determine. Haiti was designated for TPS in 2010 following the devastating earthquake that claimed the lives of more than 300,000 people. Since then, Haiti has been redesignated numerous times with the most recent designation being an 18-month extension on June 28, 2024. With this redesignation, Haitians who entered the United States under parole could apply for Temporary Protected Status. The program’s extension also meant that TPS recipients would be protected from deportation and allowed to work in the United States until at least February 2026. As of March 31, 2024, nearly 200,000 Haitians have been approved for TPS according to the National Immigration Forum. Does Trump’s election risk changing anything? Yes and no.

In 2017, during his first presidency, Trump ended TPS for 59,000 Haitians, a decision that sparked a six-year legal battle in a case known as the Ramos v. Mayorkas case. In 2018, the plaintiffs obtained a preliminary injunction, which automatically extended the legal status of TPS holders for five years until Biden redesignated or extended the program for the affected countries in 2023.

However, as the case was progressing through court, thousands of Haitians flocked to the northern border to seek asylum in Canada. In fact, asylum claims in Canada reached their highest level in decades in 2017 with Haitians accounting “for almost a third (32%) of Canada’s overall increase in referred asylum claims” that year. Seven years later, many suspect that history could repeat itself. Canadian officials are already preparing for an influx of Haitian migrants. But things are very different in Canada. Since 2017, Canada has adopted a number of restrictive immigration measures to deal with the growing disenchantment with the government’s migration policies.

Craig Damian Smith, a political scientist and researcher at York University, has observed the change in Canada’s attitude toward migration in the last decade.

“Canadian public perception is really turning against asylum. It was never a big deal in Canada until 2017. It was not what they call a “ballot box issue”. Public polling said that people did not vote on immigration issues. You couldn’t win elections on it. But now, [things are different].”

The scenario with Haitians back in 2017 has not only affected public perception, it has also led to important policy changes including the extension of the Safe Third Country Agreement.

[talk about the Safe Third Country Agreement and how it got extended]

Craig Damian Smith:

“People started coming. It was Haitians first, and then word got out about this crossing rocks and road and how easy it was. Once word was out, it became a draw for people from around the world and people from the US.”

“Do you think the expansion of the STCA agreement was motivated by what happened in 2017, with the Haitians?” I asked.

“100%! It was 100% based on that!” he responded almost immediately. “Basically this extension of the STCA was just in case of another Trump presidency.”

Stephanie Delia, a Haitian immigration lawyer, feels that uncertainty. Like everyone else, she doesn’t know what Trump is going to do. The best she can do is guess.

“My guess is that he will not end TPS, but instead let it expire”, she says. “Immigration advocates will hopefully file lawsuits and tie [his decision] up in the courts long enough for him to give up on it or for his term to end.”

At the same time, she does not completely discard the possibility that he might go after TPS.

“If he attempts to end TPS before the end of the designation period,” she adds “then I do think he’ll be more successful [than im 2017], unless Congress or the Supreme Court act, which I don’t expect”.

For Nelson, however, there is no doubt that TPS will be included in Trump’s sweep, as well as humanitarian parole. Nelson filed a petition a at the end of last year to have a family member come to the United States under humanitarian parole program. The case is still pending. With each passing day, the chances of the petition being approved before Trump’s inauguration are diminishing. Nelson also believes that Trump will be more successful this time around, not if but when he goes after Temporary Protected Status.

“The American public is already crippled with socio-economic issues such as the [rising] cost of living, the housing crisis, food access, unemployment, and reproductive rights… I don’t foresee much opposition to his fight against “illegal immigrants.”

In a sea of despair, the migrants who are likely to be affected by these policies are holding on to hope. For some, in the face of so much uncertainty, they ground their hope in their faith in God.

“I believe that I will continue to live in the US with my family even after the D T presidency. That’s my faith in God. My other option is to go to Canada if it is possible in case that i have to leave. Otherwise I have no choice but to go back to my country.”

Now fully dressed and ready to go work, Marie stands by the door and looks into emptiness l’air penseur. A few seconds later, she exhales a deep sigh and without looking at me utters these words:

“We are waiting on God. He is the one who put us here. We trust in him!”

She leaves for work, her phone in hand, the Haitian pastor’s voice slowly fading in the background.